Assembly polls 2016: Regional satraps surge ahead, BJP's gains proportional to Congress' losses

To read the results as a saffron surge or decimation of the Congress is to miss the big picture

Let us consider a few facts first. The five states that gave their verdict on May 19 account for 822 Assembly and 116 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress won 115 of them, down 55 seats compared to the last elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 64 seats, which works out to a gain of 59 seats compared to the last round of Assembly elections in these states. What it means is that the BJP has roughly gained the same number of seats ceded by the Congress. What is significant though is that others, that include the Left and strong regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the AIADMK and the DMK, walked away with 643 seats.

Statistically translating the numbers into Lok Sabha seats would point to just a handful of seats for the BJP and the Congress, and a fairly large number for others. However, there is no denying the fact that Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are not strictly comparable and that these elections took place in states where regional parties have grown strong roots for many years now.

But the bigger point is that to interpret yesterday’s verdict as signalling some sort of saffron surge or indicating just the terminal decline of the Congress is missing the big picture. The gain of 59 seats for the BJP is quite significant. But 55 of those additional seats came from just one state, Assam. While it failed to open its account in two, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the party had to remain satisfied with one seat in Kerala and three seats in West Bengal.

There is no denying that these states have been out of bounds for the BJP so far. In Assam too, it has gained power for the first time. Gaining entry in states where it counted for nothing thus far is really a step forward for the BJP. But the real story of these elections is something else.

Regional variation aside, the big picture coming out of the latest round of assembly elections is that while the BJP is occupying the space ceded by the Congress, it has not quite gained the political muscle to take on regional satraps. Not just yet.

VOTE SHARE OF MAJOR PARTIES
	2011 Assembly Polls (in %)	2014 LS Polls (in %)	2016 Assembly Polls (in %)
	ASSAM
Congress	39.3	29.9	31
BJP	11.4	36.8	29.5
	KERALA
CPI(M)	28.18	21.84	26.5
Congress	26.4	31.47	23.7
BJP	6	10.45	10.5
	TAMIL NADU
AIADMK	38.4	44.92	40.8
BJP	2.2	5.56	2.8
Congress	9.3	4.37	6.4
	WEST BENGAL
TMC	38.9	39.7	44.9
Congress	9	9.69	12.3
BJP	4	17	10.2

The supporters of the BJP can say that the party gained vote share in West Bengal and Kerala too and has now reached a stage where it can potentially take off in a few years’ time. That may well be the case in future. But things as they stand today show that regional satraps are getting even stronger. In West Bengal, for instance, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress not only improved its vote share compared to the last assembly elections, it went beyond its own spectacular performance registered during the Lok Sabha elections. And the TMC did it despite very high index of opposition unity.

The same cannot be said about the BJP’s performance in West Bengal. While the saffron party has notched up significant gains compared to the last Assembly elections, its vote share slid by good 6% from the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In Kerala, it has remained stuck at the vote share attained during the Lok Sabha elections. And in Tamil Nadu, the BJP has shown no growth, either in terms of seats or vote share.

Given the way things are, it will be safe to assume that the process of regionalisation of politics that began in the 1990s is well and truly underway.