BJP's war machine versus Nitish's rag-tag coalition in Bihar

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s seemingly invincible war machine is battling the rag-tag coalition of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in Bihar. The fight, going by the number of hoardings that dot the landscape and workers on the ground, is clearly unequal. But Bihar is known to have surprised even the mightiest in the past and sundry activist groups are keeping alive a vigorous debate on the issues involved, while the mainstream media has focussed on the abuses that the two sides are busy hurling at each other.

The BJP claims it has over six lakh committed workers in Bihar, a team of 10 deployed for each of the 62,200 polling booths. In addition, it has enrolled over 80 lakh new members in the state in the last 12 months and that it has the detailed data, like addresses and phone numbers, of at least 65 lakh of these men and women. An estimated 70,000 Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers, supported by dozen affiliated outfits, are complementing the election work. The Sangh Parivar, it would seem, has mobilised a resource-rich army, which is working with clockwork precision under an efficient command structure.

On the rival side is the seemingly rudderless 'grand alliance' of the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. None of these parties can boast of a vigorous and disciplined cadre on the ground. There is also little synergy between the campaigning of the workers of these parties, and the resources that the other two had hoped the Congress would bring in have failed to materialise. It is evident from the 20-odd helicopters stationed at the Patna airport, which every morning fly out the leaders so they could attend five-six rallies a day. A whooping 15 of these, along with a chartered plane, are at disposal of the leaders of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

This mismatch is most visible in the number of workers on the ground. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had never bothered to put together a trained cadre for the JD(U). A party insider shares how the party wanted to replicate the BJP by enrolling at least 50-lakh members. It involved each of the one lakh party members to knock at 50 doors. But the party soon gave up and discovered its claim of one-lakh workers was an overstatement. No reliable data about the number of workers is available with the RJD. Officially, the RJD claims to have 50,000 members. The Congress is largely absent on the ground and possibly has less than 10,000 members.

While the 'grand alliance' struggles with its decentralised campaigning, the RSS workers have their own drills of spreading their message, including indulging in mock arguments at tea stalls. These thatched roof tea stalls are a common sight in Bihar and the centre of political discussions. The BJP has put up placards in thousands of these stalls that tell you the story of a tea-seller going on to become the prime minister. Given their traditional control over the dairy business, these tea stalls are mostly owned by Yadavs. Unknown to others, RSS activists form two teams of a couple of activists each. One team argues in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while the other in favour of Kumar and Prasad. This goes on until one team forces the other to shut up with its 'superior' arguments.

This is where scores of activists - involved in people's movements, working at the grassroots level in small towns and villages, Gandhian followers of Jayaprakash Narayan or those belonging to Kabirpanthi and Ravidasiya sects - are trying to bridge the mismatch between the Sangh Parivar and the 'grand alliance'. Few, if any among them, agree with Lalu Prasad's corrupt and castist ways or his dynastic politics. They aren't fans of Kumar's individual style of functioning and his reliance on the bureaucracy. Several of these groups have relentlessly fought Kumar government's policies, including allowing the opening of more liquor shops.

"This election isn't just about Bihar but will affect national politics," says Shahid Kamal, president of the Bihar chapter of Rashtra Seva Dal. The Rashtra Seva Dal, a volunteer organisation, has 100-odd workers in each of the 38 districts of Bihar and was at the forefront of protest Kumar government's excise policy. The Chhatra Yuva Sangharsh Vahini, the student group inspired by Jayaprakash Narayan, the National Alliance of People's Movement, which is an umbrella organisation of over three dozen groups and the recently launched Association for Social Action have been involved in the cause of spreading awareness about the issues involved in the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls.

In the last one month, common meetings of these groups have been organised and seminars held in big and small towns while activists have spread the message in their area of work in villages. There have also been disputes. Last week, several of these groups boycotted a meeting organised to put up a people's manifesto for the political parties at Patna's Hotel Pataliputra Ashok that was hosted by a foreign funded aid agency.

The six Left parties, for the first time, are contesting over 200 seats. Apart from the 30-odd seats that the Left parties consider their core, party workers are not actively campaigning against the 'grand alliance'. Similarly, Aam Aadmi Party workers as also of some of those who have parted ways with the Swaraj Abhiyan are pitching in with their word of mouth campaigning, particularly as Moharram and Durga Puja nears before the third phase and there is fear of communal polarisation.

PLAYING THE NUMBER GAME
Cadre strength of political parties and activist groups*

• BJP: 600,000 at booth level + 70,000 RSS workers + 8 million new members
   
• JD (U): Less than 100,000 members
   
• RJD: 50,000
   
• Congress: Less than 10,000
   
• Activist groups: Over 100,000 (4,000 to 5,000 of all hues in each of 38 districts)

*Bases on claims by the parties and political parties