Cabinet reshuffle: Parrikar not to return to Goa, Shah will stay in Delhi

Goa is slated for assembly polls by February-March 2017. But Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar is not going back, indicated a senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) source recently. Similarly, party President Amit Shah will not go back to state politics to Gujarat to lead the BJP’s charge in the assembly polls due by December 2017. But there is yet no decision on who would succeed Gujarat Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, or whether at all she will be replaced.

The above seem like the only certainties as Shah prepares to restructure his team of office-bearers while Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks at reshuffling his council of ministers. Both exercises would factor in the series of assembly polls in 2017. Party sources claimed the reshuffle in the council of ministers is unlikely to be of any significant proportions. However, it is also true that barring the PM himself, there are few, if any, in the government who are privy to his plans.

Here are some of the factors that could dictate a reshuffle in the council of ministers as well as of Amit Shah’s team.

There are two vacancies that need to be filled. The first is at the Ministry of Sports and Youth Affairs after Sarbananda Sonowal has become the Assam Chief Minister. Similarly, junior minister in the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment Vijay Sampla has been sent as BJP’s Punjab unit chief.

Five states, including Goa, go to polls by early 2017 and another two, including Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, by December 2017. BJP would work towards retaining Gujarat and wresting Himachal from the Congress. The other four states slated for polls by early 2017 are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand. BJP is keen to win UP and Uttarakhand and retain Punjab.

The BJP top leadership has rejected speculation that it might contest elections on its own in Punjab. It has made it clear that BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal alliance, which has ruled Punjab for nearly 10 years, will go into the polls together.

Shah has already put in place a grand strategy for UP, something similar to the one that helped BJP, along with its ally Apna Dal, win 73 of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Shah will continue to extensively tour UP. His focus is to galvanize the party cadre, reach out to non-Jatav Dalits as well as non-Yadav OBCs and hope for a consolidated upper caste vote in the party’s favour.

The cabinet reshuffle as well as changes in party might reflect this by inclusion of more OBC and Dalit faces. Currently, Shah’s team of 39 office bearers doesn’t have a single Dalit face. There is as yet no discussion on the party’s chief ministerial candidate, and whether at all there might be one. But Sultanpur Lok Sabha member Varun Gandhi looks increasingly unlikely to be that face.

The BJP will also be fighting two term anti-incumbency in Goa. But the presence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has given the party leadership hope that a three-cornered contest could turn in its favour, as it expects AAP to cut into Congress support base.

In the cabinet, the big four – Finance, External Affairs, Defence and Home – are unlikely to be touched. However, there could be changes in other ministries.