Chhattisgarh by-election tells a big story ahead of 2023 Assembly polls

One by-poll result has become the subject of a lot of slicing and dicing.

When Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel announced plans to install a life-size statue of the late MLA Devwrat Singh in Khairagarh ahead of the by-election early this month, it was a surprise for his party colleagues in the Congress.

For, the member of the Khairagarh royal family had quit the party in December 2017 and joined the Janta Congress Chhattisgarh-Jogi (JCC-J), founded by former chief minister and Congressman Ajit Jogi in 2016. Singh contested election in 2018 on the JCC-J ticket and won, pushing the Congress to third position in the constituency.

Singh’s death necessitated a mid-term election, which took place on April 12. And when the results were announced on April 16, Congress workers realised Baghel had made a wise, tactical move. Though a ruling party winning a by-election is nothing to write home about, the outcome in Khairagarh is exceptional. Political observer Shashank Sharma sees a changing trend in Chhattisgarh politics ahead of the Assembly polls next year.

In Khairagarh, the Congress consolidated its vote share hugely from 18.66 per cent in 2018 to 52.97 per cent. Its candidate, Yashoda Verma, polled 87,879 votes while in 2018, Congress candidate Girwar Janghel got 31,663 votes.

The data stands testimony to the fact that Baghel has dented the JCC-J vote. The JCC-J vote share reduced from 36.66 per cent in 2018 to just 0.74 per cent in the by-election. It did not even get the sympathy vote despite fielding a member of the royal family, Narendra Soni, as its candidate.

A chunk of the JCC-J vote went to the BJP, whose candidate, Komal Janghel, who lost to Singh in the last election by 940 votes, bagged 67,703 votes — over 7,000 more than what he got in 2018.

Despite retaining its traditional vote and adding others, the BJP still has a reason to worry. For, the Khairagarh by-poll results indicate a major swing of votes from a party that had emerged as a third front. The otherwise bi-polar politics in Chhattisgarh had become three-cornered with an advantage to the BJP.

The BJP, however, does not see the result as setting the trend of JCC-J votes going to the Congress.

“It cannot be said all the JCC-J votes went to the Congress. It was the eleventh hour announcement of the chief minister making Khairagarh a district that enhanced the party’s vote share,” said Kedar Gupta, senior BJP leader and in charge of the Khairagarh election.

The Congress, however, has reasons to claim JCC-J votes.

“JCC-J leaders were Congressmen and enjoyed the support of Congress workers only,” said Dhananjay Singh Thakur, Chhattisgarh Pradesh Congress Committee (CPCC) spokesperson. He added the Khairagarh results had been an indicator and the Congress would get votes from both the JCC-J and BJP as people had put the stamp of approval on the performance of the Baghel government.

Bhagvanu Nayak, JCC-J spokesperson, denied there was a diversion of the party’s vote.

“The JCC-J was founded to protect the interests of Chhattisgarh and its people,” Nayak said.

With the death of Ajit Jogi (in May 2020) and dearth of charismatic leadership in the JCC-J, political equations in Chhattisgarh are likely to change. Tension is palpable in saffron circles. After all, the JCC-J had 7.61 per cent of the vote in 2018, when the difference in vote share between the Congress and the BJP was 10 per cent.

Sharma says the Congress eating into JCC-J votes has another angle to it. It keeps the Congress vote intact, which will put the BJP in a spot. The division of Congress votes has always given the BJP an advantage in Chhattisgarh.

If the trend continues, the 2023 Assembly election will see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress if the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is trying to increase its footprint, is not up to scratch.