Congress in big trouble in Hindi heartland, predicts survey

Narendra Modi is not the only popular Chief Minister in the BJP

The predictions of CNN-IBN and The Hindu poll conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies show the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to be single-largest party in Uttar Pradesh; a neck and neck fight between the BJP and the Congress in Rajasthan and a likely clean sweep for the saffron party in Madhya Pradesh, if polls were to be held today.

 

In Rajasthan, 35% people said that the BJP’s Vasundhara Raje government rated better than the present Congress government, while 29% said otherwise.

With Assembly elections slated for later this year in the state, there is good news for the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government, which had been battling a strong anti-incumbency mood. Despite being rated poorly on key governance indicators, more voters appear willing to give it another chance today than they did two years ago.

 

In Madhya Pradesh, it’s a likely clean sweep for the BJP. The survey shows the saffron party may get 21-25 seats while the Congress may end up with 2-6 seats. The BJP is likely to secure an estimated 50% vote share in the state while the Congress may trail way behind with 32% votes.

 

Unlike Gujarat, where Narendra  Modi’s personal popularity has dipped even as the vote share of his party has increased, in Madhya Pradesh, the esteem in which Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is held by the people has grown along with admiration for his government.  When asked who would make a better prime minister, a surprising 49% said Chouhan, while 28% were with Modi. The state also tops a table on satisfaction levels with the performance of 18 state governments, rising from an already high 68% in July 2011 to a whopping 82% now, the survey shows. 

 

With 29-33 seats , the BJP is likely to emerge as the leading party in Uttar Pradesh.  It will be approximately a threefold gain for the party as compared to its performance in 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The ruling Samajwadi Party may come second with 17-21 seats while its nearest rival the Bahujan Samaj Party would be closely following with projected 14-18 seats. The Congress chances in the state remain bleak as the grand old party will finish fourth with 11-15 seats. 

 

In the survey, respondents rated the Akhilesh Yadav-led government poorly on most fronts — a majority 51% of those surveyed said hooliganism had increased under the new Chief Minister; 45% said incidents of crime, murder and kidnapping were on the rise; 42% saw no change in the pace of development.