Explained: How politics, Covid-19 pandemic are taking a toll on Nepal

A survey showed 65.5% Nepalese people don't trust political leaders: Of whom 44.9% didn't trust Oli

For the second time in six months, Prime Minister of Nepal K P Sharma Oli has ordered the general elections in the country, nearly two years before they are due. On May 21, President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved the House of Representatives and proposed the elections on November 12 and 19, following the recommendation of the council of ministers. On the face of it, this decision followed the determination that no single party in Nepal’s parliament had the numbers to form a government. But as the Opposition contests this — and has approached the Supreme Court (which in turn has referred all the petitions to a Constitution Bench) — all parties have until June 15 to try and form a government. Otherwise, Nepal will head for the general elections with Oli in the saddle, many argue, unconstitutionally.

Tikaram Joshi, an opposition leader, told Business Standard: “We were not allowed to prove our majority by the president”

That Nepal is in the grips of a pandemic that has spread into rural areas where there is little or no recourse to medical facilities, seems incidental to not just Oli but all opposition parties. Most opposition parties believe another prime minister can emerge from within the current parliament, with the right constellation of parties and factions. Oli is equally determined to prevent that from happening. Sources in Kathmandu say he may even consider imposing a national emergency leading up to fresh elections, if he is thwarted in his plans. 

The current configuration of parliament is as follows: Any party/grouping needs 136 seats in a House of 275 to form the government. The Opposition Nepali Congress has 63 seats, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), led by Oli opponent Pushpa Kamal Dahal, 54. Even if these two bitter rivals come together sinking political differences and contradictions, they fall short of the numbers. The key is with the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), which largely represents lawmakers from the Madhes (plains) areas and has 34 seats. 

The Madhes region has complaints and problems of its own. The complaints are that Madhesis are treated as “Indian Nepalis” and the constitution discriminates against them in both rights and citizenship. Seizing this, Oli has reached out to the JSP — which has split into two factions. Its chairman, Mahanta Thakur, who claims Oli has assured him the Madhes complaints will be addressed, supports the PM. But he has only 15 MPs. Other JSP members, including former Law Minister Upendra Yadav and former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, continue to oppose Oli. To prove his credentials that he supports the Madhes demands, Oli has already promulgated an Ordinance on citizenship issues.

When the elections were held in Nepal last that led to Oli’s appointment as PM, his party, the Nepal Communist Party had 173 members. In an agreement that was said to be brokered by India, midway through his tenure, Oli was to yield power to Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka Prachanda. That never happened. Prachanda split and formed his own party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). Though the split is yet to be recognised by Nepal’s Election Commission, it is this move that led Oli to announce the mid-term elections despite having a two-thirds majority and governments in several provinces: All of which he could lose.

The instability and determination to continue with politics as if it is business as usual have led to demonstrations and protests against Oli. Added to this is big power rivalry, which has become an endemic feature of Nepal politics. Oli, nurtured by India was once New Delhi’s blue-eyed boy. After the 2015 economic blockade, he switched sides enthusing China’s rise in Nepal until his political domination in the party was challenged from within it. Oli made a tactical tilt towards India last year despite the counter-manoeuvrings of the Chinese Ambassador in Kathmandu, Hou Yanqui.

A recent Nepali Times survey and Himal Media public opinion poll blamed both Oli and Prachanda for putting democracy at risk. A national survey showed 65.5 per cent Nepalese do not trust political leaders: Of whom 44.9 per cent did not trust Oli. 

Both Barshaman Pun, a member of the CPN (Maoist Centre), and Gagan Thapa (Nepali Congress) told local newspapers they had met the president and told her they were teaming up to form a government. They claimed the support of 147 legislators. However, as the matter is in court now, their coalition may become irrelevant – until the Supreme Court decides on the matter.

Of course, the outcome will be different if by June 15, the Opposition unity holds. Furious backroom deals are on in Kathmandu — as a pandemic ravages the Nepal countryside.