Lokniti-IBN survey predicts major gains for BJP in south, east in LS polls

The AAP appears to be making inroads in several states in the south as well as in Bihar and West Bengal with vote projections of 2-3%

An opinion poll has predicted major gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the southern and eastern parts of the country in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The Lokniti-IBN national election tracker has predicted that the BJP might win 22-40 seats out of the total 232 Lok Sabha seats in the eastern and southern states, except for Congress gains in Kerala and Karnataka. It puts the Congress tally at 36-72.

The poll, which projected Narendra Modi as the most preferred choice for Prime Minister across the states, also predicts BJP leads in Bihar and Jharkhand. Regional bastions of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha are predicted to remain unchallenged. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) appears to be making inroads in several states in the south as well as in Bihar and West Bengal with vote projections of two to three per cent. (2014 POLLFORECAST)

In Kerala, the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front, is expected to repeat its winning performance of 2009, bagging 12-18 out of 20 seats, with the remainder going to the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front alliance.

In Karnataka, the ruling Congress is ahead of the BJP and the Janata Dal Secular (JDS). Congress looks set to win 10-18 seats, BJP 6-10 and JDS 4-8 seats. While the residents of the state are overwhelmingly happy (71 per cent) with the stability that has come after the Congress regime under Chief Minister Siddaramaiah took over, the majority of  Lingayats, who are considered the biggest backers of Yeddyurappa (51 per cent), are opposing his re-entry into the BJP. AAP is projected to log in three per cent of the votes in the elections.

As expected, the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh has cost the Congress, with a very strong anti-Congress mood being recorded in the state. The ruling Congress looks to be leading in Telangana and the YSR Congress Party way ahead in Seemandhra. The YSR Congress of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is expected to win 11-19 seats, Telugu Desam Party 9-15, Congress 5-9 and Telangana Rashtra Samithi 4-8.

In Tamil Nadu, the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is expected to win 15-23 seats, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 7-13, Congress 1-5 and others may bag 4-10 seats. The BJP has virtually no presence in the state.  

In Bihar in the east, which has 40 seats, the BJP is expected to win 16-24 seats, the ruling Janata Dal (United) is expected to win just 7-13 seats while Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is likely to improve its tally by winning 6-10 seats. The Congress, with its poor projections of 0-4 seats, would thereby gain from getting into an alliance with the RJD rather than fighting on its own.

In Odisha, with 21 Lok Sabha seats, the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is expected to maintain its lead by winning 10-16 seats. The main opposition Congress is expected to win 3-9 seats.

Mamata Banerjee's TMC is likely to improve its strength by winning 20-28 seats in West Bengal, which sends 42 Lok Sabha MPs to Parliament. The CPI (M)-led Left Front is staring at a bleak future. It is projected to win just 7-13 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 5-9 seats and the BJP may just scrape two seats.

In order to grab a clear majority under Narendra Modi, the BJP will need to sweep the northern and western regions.