Peace pact that is the cause of strife, economic blockade

On the eve of polls, unseen accord between the Centre and Manipur could have huge bearing on results

On August 3, 2015, when the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) reached a peace accord, there was jubilation all around. Modi met Thuingaleng Mui-vah, the reclusive and legendary leader of what is now the longest-running insurgency in South Asia, and holding him solicitously by the arm, led him to the table to sign the documents: The symbolism of this was lost on no one. Few paid attention to the fine print in the agreement, which was never made public.

Much like the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, those promises have also been reduced to kaagaz ke tukre (pieces of paper). On the eve of Assembly elections — Manipur goes to the polls on March 4 and 8 — the state has been roiled by violence, with guns being fired barely two kilometres from the residence of the governor and seat of central authority, the Raj Bhavan. This raised questions about how much the accord has worked and what it actually promised.

Changing party loyalties is not new in north-eastern states, but when Khumukcham Joykishan quit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and resigned from his Assembly seat — he was one of the two MLAs who represented the BJP for the first time in this state — and joined the Congress, he was under a lot of pressure. An umbrella organisation of civil society outfits had allegedly warned him that either he should get his party to make public the terms of the agreement with the NSCN-IM or quit. 

At the centre of the threat was the long-standing conflict between the Nagas spread across the Northeast and the non-Nagas, the Hindu Meiteis, Kukis and other communities, over the idea of Nagalim or Greater Nagaland. 

Fratricide and conflict between rival political outfits have long been the bane of politics in the Northeast. But after the NSCN-IM reached an accord with the Centre, the United Naga Council (UNC), its own front organisation, called for the details of the “surrender” to be made public, and imposed an economic blockade. The issue was the Manipur government’s move to create new districts bifurcating Naga-inhabited land. Until recently, the hilly areas consisted of the five districts of Senapati, Tamenglong, Churachandpur, Chandel and Ukhrul. The four districts in the plains are Imphal East, Imphal West, Thoubal and Bishnupur. However, on December 9, the Manipur government created seven more districts, mostly out of the five hill districts, triggering a furore, particularly among some sections of the Nagas. The UNC stopped the movement of goods through two national highways to the plains of the state. This is where the Hindu Meiteis, the BJP’s primary voter base, are located.

In a recent memorandum to the Ministry of Home Affairs, the UNC demanded “political intervention from the government of India… to settle the Indo-Naga political issue once and for all, for it is impossible for the Nagas to live under the oppressive and hegemonic communal government of Manipur”.

Manipur has a Congress-led government under Chief Minister Okrom Ibobi Singh. The Congress has never been averse to patronising and funding multiple insurgent groups as a second front in the power politics game. This time, Ibobi Singh indirectly supported the Nagas, indicating the stand-off between the Nagas and the non-Nagas was not his problem, but one created by the Centre. “Since the central government is in peace talks with the NSCN-IM, they can easily put pressure on the United Naga Council to call off the economic blockade, which has caused much suffering here,” he said.

But the BJP has an alliance with the Naga People’s Front (NPF). Many in Manipur believe that while the NPF, riding on the back of the peace accord would project itself in the Naga areas, the BJP would appeal to the non-Nagas, and together the two would form a government.

However, in the complex politics of tribe, community, ethnic identity and homeland, this seems easier said than done. The agreement has neither had full acceptability nor the concurrence of various interest groups, including the multiple Manipuri Naga and Nagaland Naga groups. The net result is ceaseless strife and state governor, Najma Heptulla’s reported recommendation that President’s Rule be imposed in the state because law and order had broken down beyond redemption.

Granting that request would be tantamount to questioning the undeniable popularity of Ibobi Singh, who has managed to stay in office for three terms and is going to the hustings asking for a fourth.

But the BJP doesn’t want to let go, sensing it has a chance, however slim, of forming a government in the state. And it is the Manipuri people who are paying the price, as gunfights, high prices of essential commodities and an economic blockade rule.