Tamil Nadu: A victory that spells defeat for many

Dhinakaran's winning RK Nagar Assembly constituency will widen the gap in the AIADMK and create new turbulence in Tamil Nadu politics

Having experienced expulsion by the ruling AIADMK faction in Tamil Nadu, T T V Dhinakaran, nephew of jailed V K Sasikala, declared himself the "true political heir” of the late J Jayalalithaa after winning the R K Nagar by-election. He contested as an independent candidate. For almost 33 years, the AIADMK is holding the R K Nagar seat.

This is the first election to be held after the death of Jayalalithaa, who was chief minister and AIADMK general secretary, last December. A jubilant Dhinakaran said the people of R K Nagar had shown what they thought about the Edappadi K Palaniswami-O Panneerselvam government and this government would not last for three months.

The ruling faction responded the next day by expelling six party leaders who had openly worked for Dhinakaran. They alleged Dhinakaran’s victory showed he had an understanding with the DMK and complained he had suborned voters. Incidentally, the Dhinakaran faction made the same allegation about the opponent buying off electors. The question is what Dhinakaran's victory means for Tamil Nadu politics. Analysts, experts, and party insiders in one voice agree the immediate threat is to the stability of the government.

On the possibility of a rebellion in the ruling AIADMK, Thanga Tamil Selvan, one of the 18 suspended MLAs owing allegiance to Dhinakaran, said: “If you add the 18 legislators, we have 60 sleeper cells and we will activate them soon.”

Winning from the late chief minister's constituency has raised Dhinakaran's political stature. The AIADMK defeat also proves that a party symbol in itself means nothing, say experts.

With Dhinakaran entering the Assembly, the ruling faction fears many of its members may switch sides. Both the factions want to keep the AIADMK government running till the end of the term, but the fight for chief ministership might start again. “Agree,” said political analyst Sumanth Raman. “The AIADMK government has more than three years left in office and TTV would gain nothing by pulling it down. A compromise formula can see him wield greater power in the party and the government. It will also give him time to consolidate his position.”

“Many MLAs may now see the Sasikala family as the only force that could keep the party together and command wider voter support. The worst-case scenario for the DMK was a victory for the official AIADMK candidate, E Madhusudhanan,” said an analyst.

What TTV victory means for DMK

“The principal opposition party suffered the humiliation of losing its deposit in a seat in Chennai for the first time in more than 50 years, raising doubts about its claim to be the party-in-waiting to form the next government,” said Raman.

It was an embarrassing defeat for the DMK, which could not capitalise on the anger against the ruling faction, the divide in the AIADMK and, the last but not the least, the 2G verdict, which came as a shot in the arm for it. Those who support Stalin say his strategy is to weaken the already beleaguered AIADMK by sending Dhinakaran to the Assembly, but not many accept it this logic.

While DMK leaders say it is a relatively unimportant by-election for the party, the DMK moving to third position without even giving a competition and losing almost half of its votes compared to the previous election have raised eyebrows. 

M K Alagiri, Stalin’s estranged brother and former Union minister, alleged: “The DMK will not win any election as long as Stalin heads the party.” 
 

The success of Dhinakaran might also have ramifications in national politics, considering that the AIADMK has 49 MPs, of whom 37 are in the Lok Sabha. For the BJP, the lotus will have to wait to blossom.