The times they are a changin': Farmers fast losing political clout

A few years ago, a diesel price rise was unthinkable. The price of urea remained unchanged for many years, but it is now rising fast

In the run-up to the Lok Sabha and several state elections, politicians are leaving no stone unturned in winning the hearts and, consequently, the votes of the youth. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) member and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's mission 2014 is centred on the youth, as is that of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Another target group for parties, including the BJP, is minorities.

Amid all this, one group that seems to have lost favour is farmers.

This is quite a change from the days of "Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan" and a shift from the 70s, when Charan Singh, a formidable farmer leader, became prime minister, owing to his popularity among farmers. Devi Lal, another farmer leader, was one of the prominent faces of the opposition that unseated Rajiv Gandhi from power in 1989. And, in 1988, another farmer leader from western Uttar Pradesh, Mahendra Singh Tikait, organised a massive farmer movement in Delhi which, perhaps, had as much an impact as the recent one led by Anna Hazare.

But the glory days seem to be getting over. Says Ajay Jakhar, chairman of Bharat Krishak Samaj: "Now, the farmer community is not big enough to decisively influence the voting pattern. With a relative decline in farm income and a rise in the influence of money power in Indian politics, farmers find it hard to make their voices heard in politics."

The signs of change are many. A report submitted to the government by agriculture scientist M S Swaminathan-led National Commission on Farmers in 2007 is yet to be tabled in Parliament. Its recommendations have seldom been discussed and the suggestions are yet to be implemented. Two decades ago, this would have turned into a major political issue; but not anymore.

A few years ago, a diesel price rise was unthinkable for fear of a backlash by farmers. We have had many such price rises recently, and more have been planned in the next few months. The price of urea remained unchanged for many years, but now, it is rising at a fast clip, as the government is determined to cut subsidy, and rightly so.

All this, with no farm movement and no visible opposition from political parties.

What led to this change? Fragmentation of landholding? Deceleration in growth of farm productivity? The shrinking size of the farmer community? Experts attribute this change to a combination of all these. According to an article in a recent issue of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) organ People's Democracy, as many as 15 million people left farming between 1991 and 2011. The National Sample Survey Office survey of 2003-04 said about 40 per cent of the farmers willingly opted out of agriculture. The survey also found only 20 per cent households owned land of more than a hectare, which made them agriculturists in the true sense of the term. While 31 per cent of the households didn't own any land, 48 per cent owned less than a hectare.

An Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR) working paper by S Mahendra Dev says, "Out of about 120 million land households in the country, an estimated 98 million were small and marginal holdings." This means only 22 million farm households have sufficient land holdings to be categorised as farmers. Assuming two voting members a household, this translates into 44 million voters from the farming community.

Political parties do not find this number exciting enough. Coinciding with the trend of depletion in the number of farmers is the fragmentation of land holding. The IGIDR paper says, "The average size of holdings in India declined from 2.3 hectares in 1970-71 to 1.33 hectares in 2000-01."

The stress is visible if one looks at the number of farmer suicides in recent years. According to the People's Democracy article, 2,84,694 cases of suicide have been reported between 1995 and 2013. The article adds the recent rise in farm loans have benefited only big borrowers, not small and marginal farmers. It cites a study that says there has been a significant increase in farm loans of more than Rs 10 crore. "Neoliberal policies of the government are to be blamed for the rising level of distress among farmers across the country," says Communist Party of India national secretary Atul Kumar Anjan.

In recent times, we have seen a series of protests against forcible land acquisition. Is this a sign of the stress being channelised into mass movements? Will the supposedly pro-farmer Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill bring back the golden days for farmers aspiring to capture political power?