UP bypolls a test for Opposition parties, they go to battle united or not

A month has passed since the 2019 Lok Sabha election results were announced, yet the air of dejection and sombreness continues to envelop the offices of major opposition parties in Lucknow after they were handed a crushing defeat by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
 
These expansive precincts in the heart of the city, which were till last month bustling with activity and crisscrossing of fuel-guzzling SUVs belonging to wannabe MPs, are now lying deserted and desolate. Even as top leaders of opposition outfits are still coming to terms with the drubbing and trying to fix responsibility, second-rung leaders and cadres are a disillusioned and demoralised lot.

 
While the arch-rivals Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had forged a pre-poll alliance to trump the BJP, they had an informal pact with the Congress in nearly a dozen seats, especially in the key constituencies of Amethi, Rae Bareli, Azamgarh, Kannauj, etc, which were contested by stalwarts of the respective parties.
 

The BJP swept the polls garnering 62 of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, while its ally Apna Dal (S) won two seats. The BSP, the SP and the Congress could wrest 10, five and one seat(s), respectively.
 
After the rout, the SP-BSP alliance has already fallen apart, while the Congress is in disarray, not only in UP but nationally, facing a leadership crisis after party President Rahul Gandhi expressed unwillingness to lead the grand old party.

 
In contrast, the state nerve centre of the BJP, located right across the majestic UP Vidhan Sabha, is throbbing with energy, reflecting a mini seat of power that it has become after the rich poll exploits.
 
While opposition parties have not taken any course correction or formulated a strategy, the BJP is silently, albeit dextrously, preparing for the by-polls slated in a few months.
 
UP would witness by-polls on 12 Assembly constituencies since 11 legislators belonging to different political parties were elected to the Lok Sabha. Another Vidhan Sabha seat fell vacant when the membership of sitting BJP legislator Ashok Chandel from Hamirpur district was quashed after he was sentenced to life imprisonment in a 22-year-old murder case.

 
The BJP had lost three Lok Sabha and one assembly by-polls in UP last year, merely 14 months after the party trounced the Opposition in the Assembly election by winning, along with allies, 325 of the 403 seats. The party had the Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana Lok Sabha seats, apart from the Noorpur assembly constituency, to the combined might of the Opposition. The fact that Gorakhpur and Phulpur were the turfs of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya, respectively, had rubbed salt to its wounds.
 
In the recent Lok Sabha polls, four UP ministers — Rita Bahuguna Joshi, Satyadev Pachauri, S P Singh Baghel and Mukut Bihari Verma — had contested the Lok Sabha polls from Allahabad (Prayagraj), Kanpur, Agra and Ambedkarnagar, respectively, of whom three, barring Verma, emerged victorious.

 
In all, the BJP had given the ticket to 10 MLAs to contest the general election, of those nine won. The winning candidates, apart from the three ministers, are Upendra Rawat (Barabanki), R K Patel (Chitrakoot), Akshaywar Lal Gond (Bahraich), Sangamlal Gupta (Pratapgarh), Pradeep Chaudhary (Saharanpur), and Rajvir Valmiki (Aligarh).
 
Besides, an MLA each of the SP and the BSP won from Rampur (Mohd Azam Khan) and Ambedkar Nagar (Ritesh Pandey), respectively.
 
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had nominated 11 state legislators to contest the election and all of them had emerged victorious. Apna Dal (S) legislator and former Union minister Anupriya Patel was also in the fray and won. However, in the assembly polls that followed the big victory, the BJP could win just three seats of Noida, Saharanpur and Lucknow (East), while it tasted defeat in nine remaining constituencies.

 
Meanwhile, the BJP will launch its mega membership drive next month to enrol 4-5 million members to add to its existing UP tally of more than 18 million. The membership drive will start on July 6, the birth anniversary of Jan Sangh founder and BJP ideologue Syama Prasad Mookerjee, and conclude on August 10.