Upgrading MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan's image from sober to steely

After a major organisational reshuffle in August which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dropping Madhya Pradesh (MP) Chief Minister (CM) Shivraj Singh Chouhan (along with Cabinet minister Nitin Gadkari) from its parliamentary board after having spent 18 years being on it,  he’s not the all-powerful CM he once used to be. Or is he?

There are rumours the BJP may pull the rug from under his feet before the Assembly elections in 2023.

“The decision could be a relief to the anti-Chouhan lobby in MP’s BJP. But it is extremely unlikely Chouhan will accept this stoically and open himself up to further humiliation. Such a decision will defy logic and affect the politics of MP,” says a close confidant of Chouhan.

Others share this view, but withheld comment fearing reprisal.

According to political analyst Rakesh Dixit, Chouhan may be past his prime, but there are still things that continue to work for him. What goes against him is his sameness.

 “For a new and improved BJP, regional leaders or satraps don’t matter. In any event, the BJP will contest the elections on Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s pull factor. The party is aware that Chouhan has lost his appeal and charisma. He still talks about doubling farmer income, the ease of doing business, and having an industry-friendly government. Fact is, he’s failed to deliver on promises made,’ says Dixit.

A strange uneasiness can be felt in the MP realpolitik these days. It all started after the recent reshuffle in the parliamentary board. As speculations flew thick and fast, the chemistry between Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and BJP National General Secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya was the flint that sparked rumour mills.

“Vijayvargiya has consistently been like a track running parallel to Chouhan. BJP leader and Home Minister Narottam Mishra was instrumental in toppling the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in MP in March 2020, but the plum post went to Chouhan. The BJP is a past master at bringing in new faces and the art of branding. The party has already implemented this formula in Karnataka, Uttarakhand, and Gujarat before the Assembly elections. MP could be next in line,” says senior journalist Anil Jain.

As MP’s political circles draw a straight line between Chouhan’s exit and the state elections due next year, another area of intense hand-wringing is the internal wrangling in the state BJP machinery - especially in the Gwalior-Chambal region which remains the political turf of several BJP heavyweights like Scindia, Narendra Singh Tomar, and Mishra.

“This has given Chouhan the time-out he needed. He’s using this diversion to reinstate his emotional connection with voters. He is rebranding his traditional schemes ahead of the 2023 state polls: CM Rise schools, Sanjeevani clinics, welfare schemes like Kanyadaan, Ladli Laxmi, and Teerth Darshan, to name a few,” observes Jain.

His vast experience also means Chouhan knows how to effect damage control. And this is not the first time he’s had to contend with allegations of corruption.

Another BJP leader says, “There is indisputably that connect with women voters and the image of ‘Mama’ (maternal uncle) among the youth has always given Chouhan an edge his opponents don’t have. He is one of the first leaders to provide bicycles and scholarships to girl students. The Ladli Laxmi Yojana has empowered the girl child.’

But MP-based political commentator Girija Shankar thinks otherwise.

“There is no reason to remove Chouhan now. If he had to be removed, March 2020 provided the best opportunity when he had lost the Assembly elections of 2018. If a state CM is to be unseated, the PM wouldn’t be visiting Kuno National Park on his own birthday on September 17,” he reasons.

“Chouhan is the most hardworking CM the BJP has. He starts meeting officials at 7 am! The party only removed leaders in Uttarakhand and Gujarat who did not enjoy mass appeal. That is not the case in MP,” adds Shankar.

A prominent face from among the Other Backward Classes and the longest-serving BJP CM of any state with 15 years in the chair, he is also the only BJP CM to have been in power since before Modi became PM - all the ones in other states are seen as Modi and Amit Shah appointees.

His recent posturing shows he’s trying to harden his Hindutva credentials — in line with the Modi-Shah era of a New India — far from a relatively moderate avatar that once made him look like an option against Modi.