Will Shankersinh Vaghela's 3rd front help BJP in poll-bound Gujarat?

Jan Vikalp largely seen as BJP's B-Team; formed strategically to split anti-incumbency votes

In a crowded press conference in the Shahibaug Circuit House on Tuesday afternoon, Gujarat's former CM and rebel Congress leader Shankersinh Vaghela made a much-anticipated announcement. Vaghela said he would join Jan Vikalp- a party floated by his supporters. The move, largely seen as Vaghela's last ditch attempt to claim the CM's chair, is expected to benefit the ruling BJP that will be entering into the Gujarat assembly elections with a strong anti-incumbency factor.
 

Political observers feel that any third force in the state is only going to benefit the BJP by splitting the anti-incumbency votes that would have otherwise gone to the Congress.

Vaghela, who had quit as the Leader of Opposition in Gujarat Assembly on July 24, a day after Congress expelled him, said on Tuesday: "It is a myth to say that an alternative political force can't work in Gujarat." He had taken at least 13 party MLAs with him in July, ten of whom later joined the BJP. This was right ahead of the crucial Rajya Sabha elections and was thought of as a part of an elaborate plan to block senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel's win from Gujarat.

Vaghela's son Mahendrasinh Vaghela and another former MLA are set to join the BJP soon. Vaghela senior's exit from the Congress is seen by many as the much-required prologue to ensure his son's smooth transition to the BJP. Vaghela and BJP President Amit Shah have met a couple of times in the last one year.

Jan Vikalp, floated by Vaghela's "supporters", has already started campaigning in Gujarat and is working hard towards becoming an alternative political force in Gujarat. It is expected to field its candidates in the northern parts of Gujarat, where Vaghela has a stronghold not only among upper castes (he himself is an upper caste Rajput) but also among the backward castes.

Senior sociologist and political analyst Vidyut Joshi felt that Vaghela's move might sway at least 12-15 assembly seats during the upcoming assembly polls. "This time's assembly elections are in a grey zone - around 70 seats are estimated to go to the BJP, around 50 to Congress, and the fight will be close in the remaining ones."

Joshi feels that if the third force manages to win around 30-seats they can play the role of a kingmaker. "BJP will take advantage of the third force, like they did in Goa, and form a government," he said. The only hope for Bapu, as Vaghela is fondly called by his followers, is that if Jan Vikas wins 30 seats, he might stake a claim for the chief minister's seat in the 182-member state assembly, feel observers.

Some, however, also point out that voters are unlikely to back a party that hardly has any noteworthy faces. In fact, Jan Vikas has said that it will support independent candidates in the upcoming state assembly elections. "Voters are smart enough to see through this elaborate plan, and the anti-incumbency votes are unlikely to go to Vaghela's party, they would rather go to Congress," said another political observer.

This is, however, not the first time that Vaghela has rebelled against his party. He had walked out of the BJP in 1996, floated the Rashtriya Janata Party that was later merged with the Congress.

"Bapu has lost his relevance. He was losing ground in Congress, and he is also not acceptable to many party leaders in the BJP. The 2017 elections would mean the end of the road for this veteran leader," Joshi quipped.

Vaghela is thus playing safe, being cautious not to ruffle many feathers.

"I have decided to support the campaign of Jan Vikalp but I won't criticise individuals such as Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi but criticise their political parties," he said on Tuesday.

Congress leaders in Ahmedabad responded by saying that such statements were expected from him and voters would see through his game plan.

Jan Vikalp is, however, trying to build its campaign around the strong anti-incumbency saying that why should the BJP and the Congress be the only options in Gujarat. They are taking up issues like GST, problems faced by small traders, access to affordable education and health services, revival plan for small-scale industries and employment generation measures to woo voters in the poll-bound state.