Will the mirror effect continue?

The issues in Lok Sabha, assembly elections may be different but the thing is people don't vote that differently

Now that diwali is over, the race for the assembly elections will begin in earnest. It will be much clearer exactly who is in the field, who is being backed by whom, how many rebel candidates there are and which rebel is going to work in favour of whom.

First things first. The assembly elections will be an indication of the Lok Sabha results in 2014. In the last four rounds (ie 20 years) all the states that have had assembly polls just before a Lok Sabha election have mirrored the assembly result in the Lok Sabha. In Delhi in 2009, the Congress was swept back to power in the assembly election for the second time; and all seven Lok Sabha seats in the Union Territory were also won by the Congress. Similarly in Madhya Pradesh, out of 29 seats, the BJP won 16 and the Congress 12; and the BJP won the state for the third time in a row.

In Rajasthan, in keeping with past tradition, out of 25 Lok Sabha seats the Congress won 20 and the BJP four: and it was the Congress that formed the government in the state as well.

True the comparison with previous elections suggests changes in the vote share of parties. But frankly, that is a secondary point, largely of academic and psephological interest. So make no mistake, the result will be a referendum for the Lok Sabha election. Pay no heed to those who say the issues in a Lok Sabha and Asembly elections are different, so people vote differently. The issues are different: but people don't vote that differently.

What we are not sure of, of course, is which party will be the winning one. Evidence suggests in Rajasthan incumbency is a big disadvantage. The Congress is trying to neutralise this disadvantage by replacing 40% of the candidates, creating an illusion as if the party is the same but the people representing the party will be different. This is on the assumption that people make a judgment on the performance of individual MLAs so if you replace inefficient MLAs you can beat back incumbency.

That procedure – of deciding on MLAs – is now underway. Remember, if an MLA is replaced, he usually becomes a rebel, unless he is promised better things. The countdown to the assessment of the rebel factor will begin from today.