'AI can accurately predict distribution of radioactive fallout'

Scientists have created an artificial intelligence (AI) based computer programme that can accurately predict where emitted radioactive material will eventually land, over 30 hours in advance.

"Our new tool was first trained using years of weather-related data to predict where radioactivity would be distributed if it were released from a particular point," said Takao Yoshikane from The University of Tokyo in Japan.

"In subsequent testing, it could predict the direction of dispersion with at least 85 per cent accuracy, with this rising to 95 per cent in winter when there are more predictable weather patterns," said Yoshikane.

When a nuclear power plant accident occurs and radioactive material is released, it is vital to evacuate people in the vicinity as quickly as possible, according to the research published in the journal Scientific Reports.

However, it can be difficult to immediately predict where the emitted radioactivity will settle, making it impossible to prevent the exposure of large numbers of people, the researchers said.

Using weather forecasts on the expected wind patterns, the tool enables evacuation plans and other health-protective measures to be implemented if another nuclear accident like in 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant were to occur.

The team created a system based on a form of artificial intelligence called machine learning, which can use data on previous weather patterns to predict the route that radioactive emissions are likely to take.

"The fact that the accuracy of this approach did not decrease when predicting over 30 hours into the future is extremely important in disaster scenarios," said Yoshikane.

"This gives authorities time to arrange evacuation plans in the most badly affected areas, and to issue guidance to people in specific areas about avoiding eating fresh produce and taking potassium iodide, which can limit the absorption of ingested radioactive isotopes by the body," Yoshikane said.