As ally struggles, US sees narrowing path on Venezuela

After an uprising in Venezuela quickly fizzled out, the United States is insisting that President Nicolas Maduro's days remain numbered.

But experts warn of limited options to break a protracted stalemate in which Washington may have overestimated the opposition leader's strength.

Juan Guaido, who is recognized as interim president by the United States and more than 50 other countries, on Tuesday claimed support from a group of "brave soldiers" at a base in Caracas, but Maduro quashed ensuing street protests within hours.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Wednesday that "military action is possible." But short of that, the United States has already forcefully intervened for three months, including imposing sweeping sanctions on Venezuela's state-run oil company, a lifeline for the cash-strapped government.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, which promotes democratic governance in Latin America, said the latest bid by Guaido brought to mind his failed attempt in February to force US aid across the Colombian border.

"Clearly, the opposition forces have underestimated Maduro's resilience in power and his ability to withstand significant pressure on the streets," Shifter said.

He said the hawkish rhetoric by President Donald Trump's administration had been "unhelpful and often counterproductive" in helping Venezuela, which is embroiled in an economic meltdown that has sent millions fleeing.

"Much of the policy seems to be driven by wishful, not strategic, thinking," he said.

The Trump administration has meanwhile stepped up a psychological offensive aimed at portraying Maduro as weak and dependent on his allies Russia, Cuba and China.

Pompeo dropped a bombshell as the insurrection subsided by saying that Maduro had been ready to fly out Tuesday morning to Havana before being dissuaded by Russia, although both Maduro and Moscow denied the account.

In an especially baffling move, the Trump administration publicly named three senior Venezuelan officials including the defense minister who it said had committed to back Guaido, the head of the elected National Assembly.

Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute, said the military was the crucial player in preserving Maduro's rule and that Washington has been surprised at the modest number of defections.

"The US was overly optimistic, and the administration and its supporters keep coming up with excuses as to why Maduro's hold on power has remained, including greatly exaggerating the role of Russia and China," said Carpenter, who last year published the book "Gullible Superpower: US Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements."
"What I worry about is that the temptation will rise for the US to save face and try to salvage the policy by intervening directly with its military forces, and to me that would make a bad situation even worse."
A fellow Republican lawmaker active on military affairs, Representative Jim Banks, said the United States should consider both naval and ground deployments with an aim "not to violently provoke but to firmly warn."