D-Street expects Sensex beyond 50K in 2020, Budget, US polls key factors

Pinning its hopes on revival of economic growth, Dalal Street expects the stock market to scale new highs in 2020 with a rally of 12-15 per cent, with experts listing the Union Budget, RBI's rate actions and the US elections as key factors to watch out for in the new year.

"Sentiments revived post corporate tax rate cut announcement in September. We believe initiatives taken by the government and the Reserve Bank would take time to work on the ground. However, long-term fundamentals of the Indian economy continue to remain strong," said Siddharth Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Going by the performance of benchmark indices, equity markets performed well in 2019 with the Sensex touching a record high of 41,809.96 on December 20. For the year, the benchmark index has gained over 5,000 points, or nearly 15 per cent.

Market experts attributed this strong show to a host of factors including corporate tax rate cuts, strong institutional flows and expectations of positive outcome from the US-China trade deal.

"We expect the economy to improve in FY21 and the market rally is also expected to broaden. In the short-term, markets may consolidate due to current high valuations," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

Religare Broking, VP Research, Ajit Mishra said, "We expect the equity markets to maintain a positive bias as the recent government measures would start reflecting on economic growth. Further, with a positive stance by the US Federal Reserve and easing trade war tensions, we expect global growth to revive, thereby fuelling the rally."

According to Amit Gupta, Co-Founder and CEO, TradingBells, "The bullish trend of the last four months may get momentum in 2020. We are expecting a significant recovery in earnings in the second half of 2020 on the back of low base, positive global sentiments and economic reforms that are being taken by the government."

Nifty and Sensex are expected to continue their uptrend in 2020, with some experts forecasting a rise of 12-15 per cent for 2020.

Nifty could touch levels of 14,000, while Sensex could cross 47,000 levels, Umesh Mehta, Head of Research, Samco Securities said.

On a very conservative note, we can see 13,500 in Nifty and 46,000 in Sensex very soon while the possibility of 15,000 in Nifty and 51,000 in Sensex cannot be ruled out, Gupta added.

On potential highlights for the Indian markets in 2020, Khemka said, "One of the key events that the market would watch out for would be the Union Budget for further cues on policy action from the government to spur economic growth, investments and consumption demand."

He further said that one of the major factors supporting the market in 2019 were strong institutional flows despite weak economic environment. Hence, institutional flows would be a major factor for deciding market's direction in 2020 as well.

Some other key events to watch out for in 2020 would be the RBI rate action, improvement in financial sector's health and the monsoon progress.

On the global front, the US election would be a crucial event that could influence market behaviour.

"Three key factors to watch out for in 2020 would be reducing stress in financial sector, further stimulus announcements by the government and progress in the US-China trade talks. Also, the terms of Brexit would decide the future growth in the European economy," Khemka added.

A significant correction in the US market can puncture the Indian bull market rally, while hardening of the US treasury yields can also derail the rally. Developments regarding US President Donald Trump's impeachment, inflation and crude oil volatility will also be some key triggers for the equity market next year, Mehta said.

On the sectors likely to outperform next year, he said metals, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, FMCG and consumer durables may witness a turnaround in 2020.

"Key would be economic growth and any revival in the economy will aid these sectors," he added.