Global energy demand growth slowing: BP Energy Outlook 2035

Global energy demand continues to rise but that growth is slowing and is mainly driven by emerging economies led by China and India, says the BP Energy Outlook 2035.
The fourth annual edition of the Outlook, for the first time, sets out BP's view of the most likely developments in global energy markets further beyond 2030 to 2035, based on an analysis.
The Outlook reveals that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035 as compared to 55 per cent over the last 23 years (52 per cent over the last twenty) and 30 per cent over the last ten.

As much as 95 per cent of that growth in demand is expected to come from the emerging economies, while energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow only very slowly and begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.
Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging with oil, natural gas and coal with each expected to constitute around 27 per cent of the total mix by 2035 and the remaining share coming from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables.
Among fossil fuels, gas is growing fastest, increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors.

BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said the Outlook highlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the world's energy needs. These factors make us optimistic for the world's energy future.

"The Outlook leads us to three big questions: Is there enough energy to meet growing demand? Can we meet demand reliably? And what are the consequences of meeting demand? In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?," Dudley said.
On the first question, our answer is a resounding 'yes'. The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency.

Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.
On the question of energy security, the Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among today's energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy self-sufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase, it said.
Asia is expected to become the dominant energy importing region, Dudley said.
He, however, said this need not be a cause for concern if the market is allowed to do its work, with new supply chains opening up to these big consuming regions.