Below normal rains in July, August: IMD

This year's monsoon rains in India are officially forecast to be only 88% of the LPA

Notwithstanding the plentiful rainfall in June, the weatherman has forecast less than normal precipitation over the next two months and advised the agriculture ministry to keep ready a contingency plan.

Total rainfall from June 1 to June 28 was 19 per cent more than normal, down from 27 per cent a few days ago.

According to Laxman Singh Rathore, director general of India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall could be deficient by eight and 10 per cent in July and August, respectively.

“June has received a good amount of rainfall. It was also a sowing season. But then we should not be complacent and there should be a contingency plan in place, as July and August may not have as good rainfall. There is, however, some respite as the pre-monsoon showers have helped fill up reserviors to some extent. There was good rainfall in June, which is a crucial month for sowing,” Rathore said.

However, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, has predicted “above normal” rainfall (104 per cent) in July, “normal” rainfall (99 per cent) in August and (96 per cent) in September.

Anything less than 90 per cent of long period average (LPA) is considered ‘deficient’ rainfall, 90-96 per cent is ‘below normal’, 96-104 per cent ‘normal’, 104 to 110 above normal and anything over it is ‘excess’.

IMD has predicted 88 per cent of normal rainfall this year, which is “deficient”. Many parts, especially northwest India, might witness a deficient monsoon. However, June received 28 per cent more than normal rainfall. Rathore advised farmers to choose their crops wisely, after a careful look at the weather forecast.

“For instance, a region which usually gets 100-110 mm of rainfall but receives only 60-70 mm should go for maize instead of paddy,” he said.