Kharif crop output likely to be better than last year: Report

Kharif crop production this year is likely to cross the previous season's level if the rainfall pattern during the rest of the monsoon season remains similar to that seen till mid-July, says rating agency India Ratings.
The agency is basing its optimism on the higher sowing of kharif food grain this year, which led to an increased acreage under pulses and higher reservoir levels than in FY15.
Its optimism also comes from the 33 per cent more water in the reservoirs as of mid-July over the previous 10 years average. Reservoir level was only 12 per cent higher for the same period last year.

Kharif grains represent 49.6 per cent of the total food grain output in the country and the sowing of this crop was 63 per cent higher by mid-July this year over the same period last year, when monsoons were poor.
In June, the average rainfall was 13 per cent more than the long-period average.
For the year as a whole, sowing is currently 8.72 per cent higher than the normal kharif sowing area by mid-July.

Total kharif crop sowing area as of July 17 was 56.33 million hectares compared to 34.63 million hectares last year.
Sowing of key crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds is higher than last year. Paddy sowing is 4.4 per cent higher so far, but is 11.4 per cent lower than normal sowing.

In case of pulses, sowing is 134 per cent higher than last year and 36 per cent higher than normal sowing, while oilseeds sowing is a whopping 234 per cent higher than last years and 44.7 per cent higher than normal acreage.
This year's kharif output outlook depends on rainfall in the second half of July and in the remaining two months of the monsoons. Last year's bad monsoons pulled down kharif output to 124.60 million tonne from 128.69 mt in FY14.
For kharif oil seeds, the probability of higher production is also brightened due to a 44.7 per cent rise in acreage from normal acreage. However, sugarcane, cotton, jute and mesta are likely to be a shade lower than in FY15.

Noting that global food prices are at a multi-year low, the report said despite two adverse agricultural shocks (low monsoon affecting kharif output and unseasonal rains affecting rabi crops), the domestic food grain prices have not increased rapidly.