During the first half of 2015-16, the micro-lending sector registered an expansion of 28 per cent compared to a growth of 31 per cent in the same period previous fiscal.
"The volume of external capital required to support MFIs (micro-finance institutions) for a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-40 per cent over the next three years would be Rs 900-2,200 crore," said the report by rating agency Icra.
The report does not include Bandhan, an erstwhile micro-lender which converted itself into a universal bank last year, and the eight MFIs which have in-principle approvals from the Reserve Bank to become small finance banks.
The report further said the in-principle small finance banks licensees would require Rs 2,800-3,000 crore of domestic capital in the event of stake sale from foreign shareholders to Indian entities.
"This could increase significantly to Rs 5,800-6,000 crore in case fresh equity is raised to reduce foreign shareholding...Access to capital would hold the key to growth for the MFI industry over the medium term," Icra Senior Vice- President and Group Head for financial sector ratings Vibha Batra told reporters in a conference call.
According to the report, the sector would need a debt fund requirement of Rs 18,000-20,000 crore to support 30-35 per cent growth for next one year.
The systemic softening of interest rates and shift in borrowings towards debt instruments has resulted in moderation of around 100-150 basis points in funding costs for MFIs.
"Securitisation continues to be a good source for fund
She said the market size of MFIs was Rs 1 trillion (Rs 1.1 trillion including Bandhan Bank) as of September 2015 but has a potential to grow nearly three-fold to Rs 2.8-3.4 trillion.
"Given that MFIs have the scope to lend another 15 per cent of their portfolio towards non-qualifying (i.E. Non- microfinance) loans, they could grow their micro-enterprise loans/micro-housing loans by an additional Rs 40,000-50,000 crore," she said.
The agency said adequate MIS systems, recruitment, employee-training-and-retention are likely to remain critical performance-determining factors, given that staff attrition rate in the industry remains high at around 25 per cent as most MFIs are in a significant expansion drive.
"The good credit quality has been supported by several safeguards put in place by the regulators such as data sharing through credit bureaus, restrictions on overall leveraging of Rs 1,00,000 per borrower (MFIN directive caps the same at Rs 60,000), and stipulation that not more than two MFIs can lend to the same borrower," Batra said.
"Refinancing for MFIs at lower than market rates could lead to reduction in the borrowing cost by around 60-100 bps depending on the share of funding from Mudra Bank in the overall funding mix of an MFI," Batra concluded.
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