Mint Road watchers ask markets to wait for Dec for a rate cut

The Monetary Policy Committee will go in for a "dovish pause" in rates when it announces its call tomorrow, and vote for only one more round of rate cut later this year, analysts said on the eve of the fourth policy review tomorrow.
"We think MPC may want to delay its proverbial silver bullet for the December review with the scope for further cuts narrowing," analysts at Bank of America-Merill Lynch said.
In a note, they said Governor Urjit Patel will "make a strong case for lending rate cuts in the policy" and listed out reasons for the same.
Those include a period of 'soft growth' where GDP expansion has dipped to 5.5 per cent under the old series which is below the economy's potential to do 7 per cent and the possibility of the surging inflation settling at 4.5 per cent for the second half, much within the RBI's target.

However, analysts at domestic brokerage Edelweiss are not so optimistic in their outlook, while expecting a status- quo in rates tomorrow.
"We have been arguing, against consensus, that the rate cut cycle is already behind us. If RBI chose to loosen rates it could opt for another 0.25 per cent rate cut sometime in the next three months," they said.

In support of its view, they said the disinflationary pressure on food articles is behind us and the core inflation is also rebounding.
"We believe that inflation has bottomed out and will pick up going forward. We expect RBI to maintain status quo tomorrow and maintain its neutral stance. It could sound more dovish in its bid to support growth concerns," it said.

The MPC began its bi-monthly review meeting today and RBI will announce the rate call tomorrow afternoon.
The review comes amid a heightened fears of a slowdown in growth due to various factors like the demonetisation exercise and the introduction of the indirect taxation reform GST and a shrill call for fiscal boosters from a varied section of economists.
The GDP expansion slowed down for the sixth straight quarter to 5.7 per cent which is a three year low under the new series of computation for the June quarter.
The government has been working on a plan to push up growth, but has not announced any move yet which can prove to be a stimulus except reviving the PM economic advisory council header by economist Bibek Debroy.