The findings by University of Washington researchers mean that an area known to have experienced a massive volcanic eruption in the past, such as Yellowstone National Park, could have a large pool of magma festering beneath it and still not be close to going off as it did 600,000 years ago.
"You might expect to see a stewing magma chamber for a long period of time and it doesn't necessarily mean an eruption is imminent," said Sarah Gelman, a UW doctoral student in Earth and space sciences and lead author of the study.
They also suggested that the magma had to be injected into the Earth's crust at a high rate to reach a large enough volume and pressure to cause an eruption.
However, Gelman and her collaborators took the models further, incorporating changes in the crystallisation behaviour of silica-rich magma in the upper crust and temperature-dependent heat conductivity.
They found that the magma could accumulate more slowly and remain molten for a much longer period than the models previously suggested.
Arcs are found in various parts of the world, including the Andes Mountains of South America and the Cascades Range of the Pacific Northwest.
Scientists have developed techniques to detect magma pools beneath these arcs, but they cannot determine how long the reservoirs have been there. Because volcanic magma becomes more silica-rich with time, its explosive potential increases.
"If you see melt in an area, it's important to know how long that melt has been around to determine whether there is eruptive potential or not," Gelman said.
The study was published in the journal Geology.
