Overconfidence can fool peers: study

Overconfident people are more likely to succeed at work and can fool others into believing they are more talented than they actually are, Indian-origin scientists have found.
Researchers found that these 'self-deceived' individuals could be more likely to get promotions and reach influential positions in banks and other organisations.
However, these people are more likely to overestimate other people's abilities and take greater risks, possibly creating problems for their organisations.
The study, by researchers from Newcastle University and the University of Exeter, has also found that those who are under confident in their own abilities are viewed as less able by their colleagues.

This is the first time a link has been found between a person's view of their own ability and how others see their abilities.
As part of the research the team asked 72 students to rate their own ability and the ability of their peers after the first day of their course.

Of those, 32 students (about 45 per cent) were under confident in their ability as compared to their final mark, 29 students (40 per cent) were overconfident and 11 students (15 per cent) were accurate in their assessments of their own ability.
There was a positive correlation between the grades students predicted for themselves and the grades others predicted for them.

In other words, students who predicted higher grades for themselves were predicted to have higher grades by others, irrespective of their actual final score. The same applied to those who were under confident.
The task was repeated after six weeks of the course when the students knew each other better and the findings remained the same. Those who were over confident were over rated by others.
"These findings suggest that people don't always reward the most accomplished individual but rather the most self-deceived," said study author Dr Vivek Nityananda, research associate at Newcastle University.
"We think this supports an evolutionary theory of self-deception. It can be beneficial to have others believe you are better than you are and the best way to do this is to deceive yourself - which might be what we have evolved to do," he said.

"If overconfident people are more likely to be risk prone then by promoting them we may be creating institutions, such as banks and armies, that are more vulnerable to risk," said joint lead author, Dr Shakti Lamba, of the University of Exeter.
The findings will be published in the journal PLOS ONE.