'Sans crude import,current account would've been 4.6% surplus'

The current account of the country would have turned surplus of 4.6% of the GDP in FY14 without energy imports, says a report.

 

"In FY14, the net energy imports of the country were 6.3% of GDP. Without energy imports, it would have run a current account surplus of 4.6% of GDP (instead of the 1.7% deficit)," Goldman Sachs said in a report.

 

The current account deficit narrowed to 1.7% of GDP, or $32.4 billion, in FY14 from a record high of 4.7% or $ 87.8 billion in FY13.

 

The report forecasts the rise in country's net energy imports to $230 billion by FY23 from $ 120 billion in FY14, as the ongoing Iraqi crisis has jacked crude prices by over 6% already.

 

"From 2017 onwards, we expect the country to enter a more energy-intensive phase of growth, driven by greater industrialisation, electrification and urbanisation; and we think its demand for energy will increase more rapidly than in the previous decade," the report said.

 

The report, however, said that even with a large energy elasticity of demand, energy imports as a share of GDP may have peaked already.

 

"Our projections show the share of energy imports declining very gradually to 4.9% of GDP from 6.3% of GDP currently. This is despite our energy demand projections being higher than other agencies," it said.

 

The report further said the primary driver of drop in energy imports could be on account of moderation in oil prices.

 

Oil comprises 80% of energy imports and stagnant oil prices have a large impact on the energy bill.