"SFBs are likely to be the major suppliers of PSLCs and this will increase their returns on managed assets by 0.3 per cent to 0.6 per cent," Ind-Ra said in a note.
Further, by financial year 2019-20, the SFBs - the first of the ten banks started functioning last month - will supply between Rs 9,000 crore to Rs 19,000 crore in loans which can be bought by the banks, it said.
The agency expects the PSLCs to be priced between 1 per cent to 3 per cent annually, of amount of the certificates issued, depending on the PSL sub-segment deficit of the buyer.
The loans of Rs 9,000 crore to Rs 19,000 crore supplied to the PSLCs will constitute between 11-23 per cent of the SFBs' assets under management estimated in 2019-20, it said.
As against regulatory requirement to have 75 per cent of their assets in the PSL segment, India Ratings said as of the existing entities loan portfolios in 2014-15 -- most of them are microfinance lenders -- over 90 per cent qualify as PSL.
The agency said it expects the total PSL shortfall to touch Rs 3.1 trillion in 2019-20 from Rs 1.9 trillion in 2014-15.
As the PSLC grow, it said the share of the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) in the deployment of the shortfall will moderate to 53 per cent in 2019-20 from 68 per cent in 2014-15, while the securitisation/inter-bank participation certificates and business correspondent arrangements will remain steady at 32 per cent.
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