Thailand's new government could be unstable, short-lived

Thailand's election Sunday is likely to produce a weak, unstable government whether it's a civilian or military-backed party that cobbles together a coalition, setting off a new phase of uncertainty in a country that's a US ally in Southeast Asia and one of the world's top tourist destinations.

The election is Thailand's first since its military seized power from an elected government in May 2014. It was the conservative establishment's third major attempt by either military or legal coup to eradicate the influence of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a tycoon who made his fortune in telecommunication and upended Thailand's politics with a populist political revolution nearly two decades ago.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who as army chief led the 2014 coup, is hoping to stay in power with a hybrid political system that relies on an appointed Senate and a 20-year national strategic plan to limit the power of political parties not aligned with the military.

"It will be unstable," said Prajak Kongkirati, a political science lecturer at Thailand's Thammasat University. "Whatever party wins, Prayuth or Thaksin's side, both governments will be weak and unstable.

The government can collapse within a year or a year and a half and we might have a new election quite soon."