The SDG Health Price Tag was published today in The Lancet Global Health.
It estimates the costs and benefits of progressively expanding health services in order to reach 16 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) health targets in 67 low-and middle- income countries that account for 75 per cent of the world's population.
The analysis shows that investments to expand services towards universal health coverage and the other SDG health targets could prevent 97 million premature deaths globally between now and 2030, and add as much as 8.4 years of life expectancy in some countries.
"Universal health coverage is ultimately a political choice. It is the responsibility of every country and national government to pursue it," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General, wrote in a commentary accompanying the paper.
The SDG Health Price Tag models two scenarios - an "ambitious" scenario in which investments are sufficient for countries to attain the health targets in the SDGs by 2030, and a "progress" scenario in which countries get two-thirds or more of the way to the targets.
The remaining costs are for medicines, vaccines, syringes and other commodities used to prevent or treat specific diseases, and for activities such as training, health campaigns and outreach to vulnerable communities, it said.
"Under the 'ambitious' scenario, achieving the SDG health targets would require new investments increasing over time from an initial USD 134 billion annually to USD 371 billion, or USD 58 per person, by 2030," it said.
The ambitious scenario includes adding more than 23 million health workers, and building more than 415,000 new health facilities, 91 per cent of which would be primary healthcare centres, it said.
The investments could prevent 97 million premature deaths--one every five seconds over 15 years--including more than 50 million infants and children who are either stillborn or die before their fifth birthday, and 20 million deaths from non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer, it said.
The "progress" scenario would require new investments increasing from an initial USD 104 billion a year to USD 274 billion, or USD 41 per person, by 2030.
These investments would prevent about 71 million premature deaths and boost health spending as a proportion of GDP to an average of 6.5 per cent, the study said.
More than 14 million new health workers would be added, and nearly 378,000 new health facilities built, 93 per cent of which would be primary health care centres.
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