Wheat output likely to drop by 2.31% to 96.1 mn tonnes: NCML

The country's wheat output could drop by 2.31 per cent to 96.1 million tonnes in the 2017-18 crop year due to shift in the area to other crops, private agri-commodities management and services firm NCML said.
Although the government has not come out with its official estimate on wheat and other rabi crops for 2017-18 crop year (July-June), but the agriculture ministry is hopeful of a record 100 million tonnes of wheat output this year.
Wheat output stood at 98.38 million tonnes in the 2016-17 crop year, as per official data.
"Contrary to the government's speculation of wheat crossing 100 million tonnes, NCML forecasts the 2017-18 wheat crop at 96.1 million tonnes," National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) said in a statement.

The reason is around 4 per cent lower wheat area sown as the farmers shifted to other crops, majorly chana, it said.
Even soyabean production is estimated to decline sharply to 9.15 million tonnes in the rabi season of this year, as against 13.79 million tonnes a year ago.

Rapeseed-mustard seed output is pegged lower at 7.64 million tonnes as against 7.97 million tonnes in the said period.
"Farmers' disillusionment with the low prices last year resulted in them shifting away from rapeseed-mustard seed resulting in its production estimate being lower by 4.2 per cent," the NCML added.
However, production of rice is likely to increase to 14.5 million tonnes in the rabi season of this year as against 13.76 million tonnes in the year-ago.

In case of pulses, gram (chana) output is pegged higher at 9.71 million tonnes in the rabi season of the 2017-18 crop year as against 9.33 million tonnes in the same period last year, due to higher acreage.
"Driven mainly by higher gram production, the total rabi pulses production is expected to increase slightly over last year even as the kharif pulses registered significant decline of 9.8 per cent over last year," it said.
Among cash crops, NCML has pegged cotton output at 36.5 million bales for this year, as against 33 million bales in 2016-17.
According to NCML, "The prices of key agri-commodities are likely to remain flat around the lower ranges in the year ahead, due to higher stock to use ratios of most commodities.