China's economic growth forecast at five-year low in Q1

By Adam Rose

BEIJING (Reuters) - China is expected to report its slowest growth in five years on Wednesday, a Reuters poll shows, with signs of waning strength in the first quarter of 2014 already prompting government action to steady the world's second-largest economy.

Authorities have ruled out major stimulus to fight short-term dips in growth, and some analysts think the economy will continue to lose momentum into the middle of the year.

The economy is expected to have grown 7.3 percent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 25 economists polled by Reuters, after growing 7.7 percent in the final quarter of 2013.

If realised, it would be China's slowest annual growth since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy grew 6.6 percent in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data is due at 10 a.m. (0200 GMT).

"With Premier Li saying they will tolerate lower growth for stable employment numbers, we are not optimistic on an upside surprise," said Chester Liaw, economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore.

In 2009, as the global crisis knocked many major developed economies into recession, Beijing unleashed a 4 trillion yuan ($645 billion) stimulus package to shore up growth.

It has made it clear there will be nothing of that scale in 2014. The measures it has announced this month have been much more modest and targeted, such as tax cuts for small firms and speeding up some investment in rail projects.

Some analysts said those type of steps could be enough to keep growth near the government target of 7.5 percent without disrupting a push to restructure the economy or worsening problems of overcapacity and a build-up of debt.

The government wants to enhance the role of consumption in the economy, and reduce the reliance on traditional engines of exports and investment.

MARCH PICK-UP?

Other data due at the same time as GDP may take the edge of the weak start to 2014, with a pick-up in monthly indicators for March forecast after the Lunar New Year holiday season.

Industrial output is forecast to grow 9.0 percent, investment by 18.1 percent and retail sales by 12.1 percent in March, all slightly stronger than their growth rates for January-February. To smooth out the impact of the variable dates of the Lunar New Year holidays, China releases combined January-February data for some indicators.

But figures for March already released have done little to assuage concerns the economy is losing more momentum than had been expected.

"This year's post-Chinese New Year domestic demand recovery appears weaker than usual," UBS economists said in a note.

Exports fell for the second month in a row and imports dropped sharply in March, while money supply grew at its slowest annual pace in more than a decade. Official and private surveys also show the manufacturing sector continuing to struggle.

And there are concerns the economy will slow further.

"Downward pressure may linger into the second quarter," Citi economists said in a report. "The government may fine-tune policies in the second quarter to keep growth above 7 percent."

($1 = 6.2107 Chinese Yuan)

(Additional Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by John Mair)