Expert views - Feb consumer inflation slows to 8.10 percent y/y

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's annual consumer price inflation (CPI) eased more than expected to a 25-month low of 8.1 percent in February, helped by moderating food prices, government data showed on Wednesday.

A Reuters poll had forecast retail inflation would slow to 8.35 percent from an annual 8.79 percent in January.

COMMENTARY

UPASNA BHARDWAJ, ECONOMIST, ING VYSYA BANK, MUMBAI

"Marginal pick up in industrial production along with a 20 basis point easing in core inflation provides some hopes of stabilisation in the macro space. However, we do not see this data affecting RBI's policy decision of maintaining a status quo next month."

A. PRASANNA, ECONOMIST, ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP LTD, MUMBAI

"The trend to look at is the core CPI. This time core has come off. And if you look at the components also, it looks like housing inflation is showing signs of slowing down, so that's a positive.

"Food inflation will turn more volatile, and therefore, the headline (inflation) can go up from here, but the trend in core is what will matter for the medium-term trajectory. I think the RBI is going to maintain the status quo."

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI

"Similar to the trend in the last two months, industrial growth is primarily driven by basic goods, intermediate goods and consumer non-durables.

We were expecting growth to enter the positive zone albeit at a very low level, as is being signalled by the PMI for manufacturing.

CPI inflation is in line, but don't think the trend is sustainable because sooner than later the current crop damage due to the untimely rains is going to impact the food price trajectory.

On April 1 (at the central bank's policy review) definitely there will not be any rate cut, but today's observations are not enough to give indication for any concrete change in the policy stance."

ANJALI VERMA, ECONOMIST, PHILLIPCAPITAL, MUMBAI

"Both CPI and IIP (industrial output) have come in better than expectations.

The decline in food prices has continued for the third consecutive month. However, with recent rains, there may be a rise in fruit and some vegetable prices going ahead.

Moreover, with the base effect coming into play, there is a possibility that inflation may rise again in the coming months."

(Reporting by Mumbai markets team; Editing by Rafael Nam)