Ratings firms eye fallout from shock UK election

Image
Reuters LONDON
Last Updated : Jun 09 2017 | 9:22 PM IST

By Marc Jones and John Geddie

LONDON (Reuters) - The agencies responsible for Britain's credit rating said on Friday the inconclusive elections could impact Brexit negotiations, lead to another snap poll and change the future path of economic policy.

Voters dealt Prime Minister Theresa May a devastating blow in an election she had called to strengthen her hand in Brexit talks, wiping out her parliamentary majority and throwing the country into political turmoil.

May was attempting to form a working relationship with unionists from Northern Ireland.

The three biggest firms - Fitch, Moody's and S&P Global - all have a negative outlook on their respective ratings for Britain. There are what decide at what cost Britain can borrow.

While none changed their rating on Friday, they all issued statements warning of the risks the new political questions pose on Britain, the world's fifth biggest economy.

"The UK general election result creates uncertainty over the policy platform, political cohesion and longevity of the next UK government," Fitch said in a statement. "This will have implications for Brexit and potentially fiscal policy."

Fitch added that the hung parliament increased the range of possible outcomes to British talks on leaving the European Union - including a disorderly exit and potentially a "softer" deal.

S&P Global said the election won't immediately affect the country's credit ratings but warned it could create further uncertainty by potentially delaying Brexit negotiations.

"In our view, the lack of a majority for any party is likely to delay Brexit negotiations, scheduled to start very soon," S&P Global said in an emailed statement.

"Furthermore, we do not exclude the possibility of another snap election. These considerations are reflected in our current negative outlook on the long-term ratings."

S&P Global and Fitch downgraded the sovereign to AA immediately after a vote last June by the country to leave the European Union.

FISCAL PLANS

The opposition Labour party ate into the ruling Conservative's majority in Thursday's vote by campaigning left-wing on an anti-austerity, pro-social spending platform.

Analysts say this may encourage the government to relax its grip on spending, especially as there is a lack of momentum in the economy.

But that could be a worrying sign for ratings firms.

Moody's said that the UK's rating would depend upon the outcome of Brexit and fiscal developments given the country's budget deficit and rising public debt.

It said it was "monitoring the UK's process of forming a new government and will assess the credit implications in due course".

Moody's ranks the UK one notch above the other two agencies at Aa1, a rating it has held since February 2013.

Fitch also added that the loss of 21 seats by the Scottish National Party reduced the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum.

(Reporting by Marc Jones and John Geddie; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

Disclaimer: No Business Standard Journalist was involved in creation of this content

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: Jun 09 2017 | 9:02 PM IST

Next Story