Reuters poll - Asia currencies seen pinned down as Fed readies to hike rates

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) - Emerging Asian currencies are seen likely to weaken against the dollar over the coming year on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will start hiking interest rates, although any losses are likely to be limited, a Reuters poll found.

Still, a Reuters poll on Thursday found respondents believed emerging market currencies are unlikely to rebound from decade- or record-lows, despite doubts about the timing of the Fed hike.

China's central bank fixed the currency's trading mid-point on Friday at 6.137 a dollar. It is seen trading at 6.23 in a month, 6.26 by end-June and 6.20 in a year.

"Our view is that the PBoC will allow some dollar/yuan upside if dollar bulls overwhelm," said Vishnu Varathan, senior economist at Mizuho.

The poll of around 30 foreign exchange strategists this week also showed the Indonesian rupiah is expected to lead losses and weaken about 5 percent in 12 months, followed by the South Korean won, which is predicted to fall 4 percent.

The rupiah recently tumbled to its weakest since 1998, losing 9.3 percent against the dollar since June.

Despite the fall, high inflation in Indonesia compared to its trading partners meant the currency remained strong in real terms, leading to a drop in exports.

Analysts predict the rupiah will trade around 13,611 per dollar in a year from Friday's 12,895.

The poll also showed the Indian rupee will fall only slightly on expectations that further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, due to falling inflation, and reforms by New Delhi will revive Asia's third largest economy.

In a month the rupee is expected to trade at 62.50, 63.00 by end-June and 63.50 by end-March 2016. On Friday it was trading at 62.35 a dollar.

The Indian rupee is among the best-performing Asian currencies so far this year, having managed to withstand the relentless U.S. dollar. It has strengthened one percent in 2015.

A steep 60 percent fall in global crude oil prices between June 2014 and January - India's biggest import - helped the currency by limiting dollar outflows.

"The main risk is if the Fed rate lift-off comes earlier than expected, which will weigh on the rupee and may result in capital outflows," BTMU analysts wrote in a note.

(Additonal reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava; polling by bureaus across Asia; Editing by Eric Meijer)