Ringgit sentiment worst since 2008; investors slightly bullish on rupee - poll

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Bearish bets on the Malaysian ringgit rose slightly and remained at their highest since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, while short positions in the Indonesian rupiah hit a two-month high, a Reuters poll found on Thursday.

A recent slide in oil prices and the Russian rouble have soured investor sentiment toward emerging market currencies in general and weighed on Asian currencies, although sentiment improved somewhat after the rouble strengthened sharply on Wednesday.

Investor bets on the Chinese yuan turned bearish for the first time since June. On Thursday, the yuan slumped to a five-month low against the dollar after China's central bank set a weaker daily midpoint fixing, prompting investors to cut exposure to the local currency.

The poll showed that investor sentiment toward most emerging Asian currencies remained bearish, with short positions in the Indonesian rupiah rising to their highest since early October.

The rupiah hit a 16-year low of 12,930 on Tuesday according to Reuters data. Analysts said the rupiah fell due to corporate demand for dollars and worries that overseas investors were pulling money out of Indonesian assets, with its moves exacerbated by thin year-end trading conditions.

Investor bets on the Indian rupee remained slightly bullish, but long positions in the rupee were trimmed to their lowest level in two months.

The rupee hit a 13-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as the brewing financial crisis in Russia continued to raise concerns about foreign fund outflows.

Bearish bets on the Malaysian ringgit rose slightly in the two weeks since the last survey, and remained at their highest level since September 2008. The ringgit hit a five-year low of 3.5040 last week on worries that sliding oil prices would hurt Malaysia's current account and fiscal deficit.

Investor bets turned bullish toward the Philippine peso, with long positions in the currency reaching their best level since late August.

Last week, the peso had risen to its highest level in nearly three months after Moody's Investors Service upgraded its rating on the Philippines by one notch to Baa2 from Baa3, citing a decline in the Philippines' debt burden and structural improvements in fiscal management.

Elsewhere, bearish bets against the Thai baht rose to their highest level since June. Short positions in the Taiwan dollar increased slightly and remained at their highest level since early 2009.

The Reuters survey is focused on what analysts believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3.

A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

DATE CNY KRW SGD IDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB

18-Dec 0.29 0.35 0.89 0.89 0.94 -0.07 1.65 -0.22 0.62

4-Dec -0.51 1.13 1.25 0.43 0.92 -0.47 1.59 0.13 0.47

20-Nov -0.88 1.37 1.12 0.07 0.88 -0.25 1.16 0.50 0.56

6-Nov -0.87 1.02 0.74 -0.02 0.41 -0.62 1.01 0.28 0.54

23-Oct -0.90 -0.31 -0.08 0.19 -0.08 -0.51 0.05 -0.08 -0.16

9-Oct -0.75 0.96 0.66 1.15 0.59 -0.03 0.73 0.47 0.57

25-Sept -0.94 0.27 0.57 0.86 0.65 0.04 0.65 0.58 0.34

11-Sept -1.15 0.19 0.93 0.42 -0.07 -0.07 0.40 0.03 0.32

28-Aug -1.07 -0.77 -0.09 0.00 -0.14 -0.41 -0.84 -0.58 -0.21

14-Aug -1.10 -0.62 -0.02 -0.02 -0.21 0.25 -0.83 -0.42 -0.53

(Additional reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava in BENGALURU; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)