Tumble in Singapore exports adds to expectations of more monetary easing

By Jongwoo Cheon and Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore exports fell sharply in January as sales to major market China collapsed, adding to expectations monetary policy will need to ease further to take some of the sting off weak global demand and put the trade-reliant economy back on track.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) tumbled 9.9 percent in January from a year earlier, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement on Wednesday, missing the median forecast of a 7.4 percent contraction in a Reuters poll.

In December, annual exports fell 7.2 percent.

Exports to China, Singapore's top overseas market, declined sharply by 25.2 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with a 18.7 percent slide in December.

The slowdown in China, a major export market for commodities and consumer products, has dealt a severe blow to many economies across the world, including Asian exporting giants such as Japan and South Korea.

Analysts say the possibility of the central bank easing monetary policy at its scheduled review in April is rising, as the recent economic data indicated a worsening outlook for growth.

"I think we'll continue to see further declines (in exports), largely down to the structural shift in the economy," said Vaninder Singh, an economist at RBS.

"Our base case is for an easing in April to a neutral slope," Singh said.

The case for further central bank stimulus could increase if data next week such as January inflation and final fourth quarter growth numbers point to more slowing.

The Singapore dollar fell on the disappointing trade data, hitting 1.4084 per the U.S. dollar, its weakest since Feb. 9.

CHINA, U.S.

Shipments to the United States slumped 5.1 percent last month, compared with December's 12.8 percent expansion.

Sales to Europe rose 14.3 percent in January on-year after sliding 2.9 percent in December.

"Any positive impetus from the merchandise trade channel will be marginal given the secular shift towards services in both the U.S. and China which translates to lower merchandise imports from traditional partners," said Weiwen Ng, economist at ANZ.

Annual domestic exports of electronics eased 0.6 percent, while volatile overseas shipments of pharmaceuticals increased 6.9 percent in January from a year earlier.

Singapore's electronics sector has been underperforming neighbours such as South Korea and Taiwan due to cut-throat competition, as well as the city-state's lack of popular high-tech products such as smartphones.

(Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)