'Plr Could Drop By 50bp In The Near-Term'

According to him, the ball is now in the court of the players who have to deliver. He spoke to Rajas Kelkar on various issues. Excerpts from the interview:

Business Standard: How do you see the post-budget sentiment in the capital market?

Vinay Kamat: The undertone is extremely bullish at the moment. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex will touch 4500 by the end of 1997. This will be the peak for the year. The Sensex is expected to fluctuate within a band of 3800-4500 during the year.

The budget has met all expectations of the market and an assurance has been given that policies are on the right track. The overall sentiment will remain buoyant for some time now. However, when the actual results from corporates are announced by the end of this month, they will act as speed-breakers.

The burgeoning oil pool deficit will result in a hike in oil prices. It would have been wise to maintain a 30 per cent increase in diesel prices as spelt out in the previous budget (but which was later pared to 15 per cent). This could have easily brought down the oil pool deficit by 60 per cent.

These factors will push the Sensex downward but the descent will be limited to 3300-3400. Nevertheless, the government has initialled steps in the right direction.

BS: Would the rally witnessed in the capital market sustain?

VK: The capital market is driven mainly by two factors