A Tale Of Two Elections

In the case of the Congress party, there has clearly been a double disaster. First, Narasimha Rao refused to go and hung on till it became embarrassing. But then when he went, instead of holding a real contest, Congress did a fudge and now that fudge has been legitimised by the election of Sitaram Kesri as Congress president. I have been saying for some time that we are witnessing the end of a great party. Mr Kesri's election has vindicated my prediction. There is no chance that he will be able to do any of the many things Congress has to do to return to power. Mr Kesri will not grasp the nature of post-Mandal politics nor will be have a clear vision of liberal economic reform that India needs. The same tired old politics that failed before, but this time without the dynastic Gandhi charisma, will be carried on and a reduced Congress will hang on as a small opposition party.

The Congress has chosen not to have a debate between different options that the party could exercise about its future strategy. It went for a phoney consensus. The slow and agonised death of the Congress will shape the next five years of politics. For the better, I think. Issues will be sharper and fuzzy compromises on secularism, the economy or on foreign policy will no longer be viable. The India-Pakistan talks which are going on would have been impossible under the Congress. The debate on liberalisation will go on but without the Congress trying to ride every horse at the same time. After 50 years of Independence, it is time for some clarity in politics.

At the end, the Conservative party has also been having an election for its leader. John Major resigned on-the-spot when results were showing a Tory defeat. In the two rounds of election which have happened, all the differences within the party, but especially over Europe have been tried. There were six candidates to start with and one dropped out by the time of the first ballot. The three candidates of the Right came third, fourth and fifth but surprisingly the most extreme Right, John Redwood, came third rather than fifth. Kenneth Clarke, pro-European and on the Tory Left, came first but did not have a majority. The Centre-Right candidate, William Hague, only 36 years old, came second.

The Tories have, quite rightly, decided to have their divisions aired. Europe is a serious issue on which there is a lot of bitterness. On the single currency, John Major had taken a wait-and-see position, which Clarke backs, but Redwood and the Right want to rule out going into a single currency for a long time. Of course, it is no longer the Tory party's decision. They have lost the election and the majority of 179 that the Labour government has means the Tories can do little to stop entry into a single currency if the government so decides. But even so, wounds have to be exposed before they can be healed, at least in politics. Hague moved to the Right after the first round and ruled out any compromise on single currency and insisted that all his shadow cabinet colleagues will have to toe the line. This meant that the divided party would remain divided. Clarke started saying he would let his colleagues disagree and have a free vote on the single currency. This, in the second round when Redwood came third, there was an astonishing alliance between Clarke and Redwood from the two opposite ends for the final round. The point of all this manouevering is that on the subject that divides them, the Tories have to come to some understanding of their differences and separate the matters of principles from those of posturing.

The final round on Thursday gave victory to William Hague. Mrs Thatcher had already endorsed him, perhaps incensed by the betrayal of Redwood who joined with her nemesis, Clarke. The margin was decisive, 90 to 72 out of a total electorate of 164 with two abstentions. So the Conservative party has had its debate on Europe openly after the election which they lost and chosen to stay Eurosceptic. Hague has ruled out joining the single currency for 10 years, but he will be lucky to have any role to play in deciding this issue. His best bet is to go out and revive public support for the party, reform its structure and fashion some sort of new philosophy for his party now that Tony Blair has stolen most of their clothes and fashioned a New Labour suit out of them. It is a tough job but the basic list of tasks is the same for Hague as it for Kesri. But will he succeed?

The Conservative party is one of the longest surviving parties of modern times and it has ruled the UK for much of this century. The Liberal party which used to be a major force in the 19th century crumpled suddenly after 1925 and has had to wait 70 years for its revival. The chances are that the Conservative party may also decline like the Liberal party did. The Liberals after all won a spectacular victory in 1906 over the Conservatives and ruled for 16 years, though in 1916 there was a split between the Asquith and the Lloyd George factions. And then suddenly, after its greatest triumph, it disappeared. After 18 years of Tory rule, the same could happen to the Conservatives.

But I think this is unlikely. This is because any party that can have an open and bloody contest about its leadership and have a passionate bitter debate about principles has an instinct for survival. For you survive by adapting and changing and facing the adversities and not by sliding under the blanket and hoping that normal life will resume when you wake up. Parties that compromise are compromised parties.