Crucial Point At 3101
A technical analysis on what to expect in August 1998
BSE Sensex: The third week starting August 17 will show high volatality and chances are that this period will favour bears. For the coming month, the 3287 level is crucial. If the Sensex closes above this level for three consecutive days, then it can flare up to 3465 and after crossing this level, it can go to 3591 points. On downside, once it breaks and closes below 3019, a free fall to 2826 is not ruled out. The volatality chart indicates that if the index closes below 3101 for three consecutive days, then a non-stop slide to 2694 points is possible.
S&P CNX Nifty: The monthly closing chart doesn't show any bullishness in the short term. Unless it closes above 952 for three days, the downtrend will continue.On the upside, it can flare to 999 points, but it will face a minor resistance at 973. On downside it can slide to 881 or 838 with minor support at 914 and 859.
ITC: The chart indicates bad news in the coming days. The weekly closing chart has formed a head and shoulder pattern and a weekly close below Rs 627.25 will create an all around panic. Unless it closes above Rs 659 for three consecutive days, traders can sell this scrip. On downside, it can slide to Rs 592 or Rs 549. On upside after crossing Rs 659 it can touch Rs 702.
Hindustan Lever: Rs 1642 is a very crucial support and if it breaks and closes below this level for three consecutive days, then it can easily fall to Rs 1534 , Rs 1446 or Rs 1359. A close above Rs 1729.50 will take the scrip easily to Rs 1817 or Rs 1871. It can crash in the coming month.
Telco: If it crosses and closes above Rs 145 for three consecutive days, it can go to Rs 160. On downside it can go to Rs 104 or even Rs 75. Investors are advised to offload.
Tisco: For a trend reversal, it should close above Rs 112 for three consecutive days. The upside still remains limited to Rs 125. On downside it can slide to Rs 90 or even Rs 77. Do not invest even at Rs 75.
Bajaj Auto: The uptrend will continue unless it breaks and closes below Rs 631 for three consecutive days. On upside minor resistance exists at Rs 674 and strong resistance at Rs 718, Rs 745 and Rs 772. On downside it will take support at Rs 577 or Rs 490.
Tata Tea: Three consecutive closes below Rs 298 will be bad. Downward levels are Rs 271 or Rs 240. It looks like the last counter for this year's rally. The maximum upper targets are Rs 330 or Rs 357. In the next 21 trading sessions, expect some bad news.
Satyam Computer: Rs 473 is a trend decider for the month. On upside once it crosses Rs 536.50 with high volumes then it will try to touch Rs 600, Rs 641.50 or even Rs 683. On downside it can slide to Rs 390, Rs 326 or even Rs 263. Two consecutive closes below Rs 430 will create panic in market.
Mastek: It will oscillate between Rs 244 and Rs 319 with a crucial point at Rs 281. If it crosses Rs 281,then it can fall to Rs 207 or jump to Rs 357 or Rs 376. Three consecutive closes above Rs 376 will bring good news.
CMC: The scrip will show wild fluctuations. Sell with a stop loss of Rs 183. It should not close above this level for three consecutive days. On downside it can slide to Rs 158, Rs 133 or even Rs 112. On upside it can flare to Rs 205, Rs 225 or even Rs 250 is possible.
Wockhardt: The scrip will have no problems unless it breaks and closes below Rs 240. On upside it can shoot up to Rs 290 or Rs 320. If it breaks Rs 240, then a fall to Rs 211 is possible. Offload your holdings if it closes below Rs 211 for two consecutive days.
August's Hot Scrips: Sell Arvind Mills, Bombay Dyeing, LML, IPCL, Colgate and Tata Tea.