Export Target May Be Missed By $5bn
The export target of $38 billion for the year 1996-97 is likely to be missed by around $5 billion.
According to the latest data, the value of the exports for April-December stands at $24 billion. It is expected that in the next three months, the exports would go up by roughly $8-9 billion, taking the total value to around $32-33 billion. This will leave a gap of $5 billion, though exports during the last quarter of the year usually fare better than the rest of the year.
Says Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) secretary-general R K Dhawan, Exports this year will not exceed $33-34 billion. We do not expect the years growth rate to exceed 10 per cent.
Last year, the export target of $31.5 billion had been achieved. This year, though a 20-per cent increase was assumed while setting the target, exports merely grew by six per cent during April-December.
But, officials are pinning their hopes on a spurt in exports in the last months of the fiscal year. They said that the last years target was achieved following an export surge in March. Exports during April-March 1995-96 were at $31.8 billion, a growth of 21.3 per cent over the corresponding period last year. Exports in March 1996 showed an increase of 19.6 per cent over March 1995.
The shortfall will also cast a shadow on ninth plan calculations. Exports are expected to grow by 14.5 per cent and imports by 15.3 per cent in the ninth plan, according to an Planning Commission approach paper.
The export growth target for the eighth plan was 13.6 per cent per annum. The growth was, however, lower at 11.4 per cent and import growth rate was somewhat higher at 13.6 per cent.
The commerce ministry and the plan panel were looking at a ninth plan export growth target of 20 per cent per annum, up from 13.6 per cent per annum in the eighth plan. The FIEO had suggested that the target could be placed at $125 billion, assuming a 25 per cent annual growth rate. This was before the export growth rate plummeted this year.
Exports during November and December 1996 actually declined by over one per cent in comparison to the same months last year.