Shift In Brahmin Vote Jolts Bjp
There has been a partial shift in the Brahmin vote in central Uttar Pradesh, a development that has set alarm bells ringing within the Bharatiya Janata Party. Senior party leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee today began the salvage operation in the affected constituencies.
A combination of various factors-including the resurgence of the Congress under Sonia Gandhi, casteist tendencies among the Brahmins and squabbling within the BJP-has led to the shift in the constituencies of Unnao, Kanpur, Bilhaur, Kannauj and Farrukhabad.
The conflict within the BJP over the murder of Brahma Dutt Dwivedi and the alleged complicity of sitting MP from Farrukhabad, Sakshi Maharaj, has prompted Brahmins to boycott the BJP candidate, and decide to vote in favour of Salman Khurshid. In this, they have been led by none other then the Dwivedi family of Farrukhabad, including Prabha Dwivedi , now a minister in the Kalyan Singh government. The seat is already taken as lost by the BJP, making Khurshid-who stood fourth in 1996-the frontrunner.
In Unnao , the Sonia factor is not of much consequence. The growth of casteist tendencies among Brahmins has led to the shift of an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 votes in favour of the Cngress candidate, Sachidananad Bajpai. This may not improve his position (number four in the contest), but it is enough to defeat the BJP candidate.
In Bilhaur, in certain segements, voters in several villages had voted in favour of the BJP in the last two elections , but are said to have returned to the Congress fold. This will add to the tally of Congress candidate Bhoodar Narain Misra by an estimated 15,000 to 30,000. Again, this may not change his position below the BJP, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, but it will be enough to bring down BJP candidate Shyam Bihari Misra, who is precariously placed vis-a-vis the BSP and the SP.
Similarly in Kannauj , the Farrukhabad effect has alienated the Brahmins. Senior leaders have not been able to persuade Dwivedis widow to withdraw her opposition to Sakshis candidature. Sonias effect is visible.
This Brahmin dominated constituency has been with the BJP for quite some time, but this time the Brahmin vote is deeply divided.
If Vajpayees salvage operation does not help tide over the crisis, the BJP may well lose most of the seats from Farrukhabad to Kanpur to Unnao. It has virtually lost Farrukhabad to the Congress, the SP may gain in Kannauj while Bilhaur and Unnao could go the BSP way.