Us Scientist Backtracks On Drought Forecast
Heres a tip for monsoon watchers in India: Dont be swayed by predictions of a drought this year. One day after he created a storm by forecasting a drought in India because of weather patterns in the Pacific, a top US scientist downplayed his forecast.
I probably should not have predicted drought in India, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Prediction Centre director Ants Leetmaa told Business Standard on Thursday.
Leetmaa said his prediction was based on a historical correlation between the development of EI Nino, a warm ocean temperature in the Pacific, and the monsoon. When the Pacific is warm, the monsoon tends to be weaker than usual, he explained.
Leetmaa said satellite estimates indicated that the seasons rainfall appeared to be weaker in India, suggesting a slowdown in the monsoon. But he was quick to distance himself from any concrete predictions about the coming monsoon, emphasising that the satellite data was yet to be verified. I am not an expert on India, Leetmaa said categorically.
Global climate experts agree that there is a correlation between the development of EI Nino, a phenomenon that occurs approximately every two to seven years, and the monsoon in India. However, the impact on any given year is largely unpredictable.
Look at the past. There are several years where there has been drought in India because of EI Nino and several years where there has been a normal monsoon. The relationship is not perfect, Maryland-based Centre for Ocean, Land and Atmosphere director Jagdish Shukla pointed out.
Shukla, an expert on the Indian monsoon, is still gauging weather conditions before finalising his own forecast for the subcontinent.
He said the only certainly so far was the occurrence of El Nino. Beyond that, the story is still weak, he said.
Leetmaa said he was fairly sure that this years El Nino would be one of the biggest events in the past 50 years for weather watchers.
In earlier predictions, he said the weather phenomenon could also cause drought in South Africa, Australia and parts of Brazil, besides bringing cool, wet weather to the United States south next winter. El Nino last occurred in 1994-95.