Top Indian IT cos may report muted Q4 nos: Analysts

Top Indian IT firms like TCS and Infosys are likely to report muted fourth quarter performance tempered by a seasonal weak quarter, analysts said.

While analysts expect Q4 results for the tech firms to be "modestly" above expectations, they feel revenue traction for Infosys and TCS could lag that of HCL Technologies and Wipro.

Barclays said it expects Infosys' USD revenues to decline by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, while that of country's largest software services firm, TCS, could grow two% q-o-q in the January-March quarter.

It added that the impact of rupee's appreciation on margins are expected to be minimal as the rupee remained mostly flattish during the March quarter.

Country's second largest software firm Infosys will kick off the earnings season from April 15, followed by TCS (April 16) and HCL Technologies (April 17).

Infosys and TCS have already expressed caution for the financial results of the last quarter of the fiscal.

Infosys has said it is most likely to meet the lower end of its FY'14 revenue guidance of 11.5-12% while TCS indicated that the fourth quarter may see seasonal softness on export revenue.

"We expect companies under our coverage to report muted performance, both on the topline as well as operating profit levels. The January-March quarter is generally a soft quarter for the industry," Kotak Securities Head (Private Client Group Research) Dipen Shah said.

Client budgets are finalised during the quarter and revenues do not accrue for the full quarter, he added.

However, for Wipro and HCL Technologies, experts expect the March quarter to be "modestly above lowered expectations".

"We expect more than 3% q-o-q revenue growth (USD terms) from HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra, which is reasonably strong," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.

Kotak expects net profit to grow by about 1.1% q-o-q for companies under its coverage and 1.2% for the top 4 companies.

During the quarter, the overall demand scenario has remained stable across sectors. The economies of US and EU have continued to show signs of improvement and stabilisation, respectively.

"This should bode well for CY14 budgets. While revenues from India are generally higher during the quarter, the ensuing elections may have an impact on client spending during the quarter," Shah said.