Next round of tariff hikes likely after Jio IPO; analysts expect 15% rise

Delay in hikes due to organic increase in market leader Jio's ARPU

Telecom service providers are expected to effect a tariff hike around July this year, and not in March as expected earlier, analysts said while citing Reliance Jio’s upcoming IPO and Vodafone Idea (Vi) expected fund-raise as the reasons for the delay.

 

They expect the increase in headline tariffs to be about 15 per cent.

 

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is planning an initial public offering (IPO) of Jio Platforms Limited by June this year. Vi too is planning to raise funds around the same time.

 

“We had built in tariff hikes in Q12026 (calendar year) earlier. We gather that the top two telcom operators are not in hurry to raise tariffs. With JPL’s IPO expected in 1H2026, our channel checks suggest that tariff hikes may happen after the same. While Vi’s fund-raising requirement is urgent, this could still precede tariff hikes… We now assume tariff hikes around July 2026,” said analysts at IIFL Capital in a note.

 

They noted that Vodafone Idea’s (Vi’s) follow-on offer in 2024, where the number three carrier raised ₹18,000 crore, happened in April 2024, before the tariff hikes took place in July 2024.

 

Sector analysts also point to elections in key states such as West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in April-May 2026. Carriers are usually averse to raising tariffs during these times such that subscriber churn is minimal.

 

“We continue to build in a tariff hike of about 15% (or ₹ 50/month on the base pack) from July 26,” said analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

The brokerage had earlier expected the tariff increase to take place by December 2025.  

 

Carriers, including Jio, have been talking of repair or correction of tariffs in India, which are amongst the lowest globally, such that their increase can be channelled towards better revenues for the companies and in turn improving their profitability.

 

Any increase in tariff hike is usually led by the market leader, which is India’s largest carrier Reliance Jio. Since Jio has seen a rise in Arpu without any change to headline tariffs, sector watchers are now changing their expectations. 

 

“The tariff hike has been pushed forward by the consensus to Q1FY27 (April-June 2026). However, the management commented that they are comfortable with the current subscriber addition and organic Arpu growth they are seeing for the business. We are building in 18 per cent year-on-year revenue growth for FY27, led by the expected tariff hike in Q1FY27,” said analysts at Emkay Research.

 

The carrier said in its earnings call that the rise in Arpu (average revenue per user) has been organic rather than through pushing up tariffs, with subscriber additions rising.

 

“There is no impact of tariff increase in any of this. So, this is just an organic Arpu increase based on more offerings that we are giving to customers, the change in the customer mix, the change in the tariff plans. So completely driven by organic means, only no tariff increase built in here,” said Anshuman Thakur, head of strategy, Reliance Jio Infocomm.

 

“Over FY26-28, we expect Jio’s Arpu to rise at 13 per cent CAGR to ₹271, led by 15 per cent tariff hike in June 2026 and another 10 per cent hike in June 2027,” said analysts at Jefferies in a note following Reliance Jio’s third quarter results.

 

The telco’s Arpu, a monthly metric of profitability of a telecom operator, rose by 5 per cent to ₹214 as of December 2025.

 

Some brokerages mentioned that the carrier does not see any immediate requirement for tariff hikes, with the company being satisfied with the current growth, including subscriber addition, premiumisation, and newer offerings including home, and enterprises business, leading to a healthy pace of revenue growth.

 

“Telecom tariff hike is not a priority. RIL is focusing on subscriber growth with 5 per cent or so organic Arpu growth,” said researchers at Morgan Stanley.

 

JM Financial highlighted Sebi chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey’s statement that the ministry of finance had approved halving the minimum IPO float for large companies valued over ₹5 trillion to 2.5 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.

 

The final notification is still pending and hopefully should be done soon, it added.   

Strong signals

• Analysts expect a tariff hike of 15% 
• The brokerage had earlier exp­e­cted the tariff increase to take place by December 2025 
• Management said it is comfortable with the current subscriber addition and organic Arpu growth, according to analysts
• Carrier does not see any immediate requirement for tariff hikes, said brokerages