Biting the bullet: Will India's Bullet Train project become a reality soon?

A major cause of concern for the project is rising costs and the commissioning date. From Rs 1.10 trillion in 2017, the cost has been revised up to Rs 1.65 trillion, up 50 per cent

In February of 2007, J P Batra, Railway Board chairman at the time, presented the idea of a high-speed rail to then Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav. A socialist inspired by Jayaprakash Narayan, Yadav said his principles would never allow a premium train only the bourgeoisie could afford.

 

Batra, already credited with the Deccan Odyssey, a luxury tourism train, was so keen on the project that he defied the minister and convinced Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to give the green signal. Batra and Finance Commissioner R Sivadasan visited Gujarat and other states without even informing Yadav.

 

The Railway Board even considered a proposal to fund the project on the lines of the Cochin International Airport Ltd, the first airport in the country to operate under a public-private partnership with a robust stakeholder base of 19,000 investors, mostly non-resident Indians. 

 

At that time, the estimated cost for the Ahmedabad-Mumbai route was Rs 25,000 crore.

 

Sivadasan and his peers hail the Gujarat trip as the turning point for the project. The state government, under the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi, not only promised its unconditional support but also approved Rs 10 crore for a feasibility study in Gujarat — within a matter of hours.

 

Railway veterans say this sowed the seeds of the flagship Bullet Train project of the Bharatiya Janata Party government under Prime Minister Modi when he took charge in 2014.

 

As Batra signed off from the Railway Board in 2007, the project went off track. Two years later, though, socialist leader Yadav took a bullet train journey between Tokyo and Kyoto.

 

Japanese helping hand

 

The inventors of Tokaido Shinkansen, later nicknamed Bullet Train, were roped in to assist with India’s dream of having one. In October 2013, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) signed a memorandum of understanding with Indian Railways. After Modi took charge as the prime minister, the project gained momentum, as it was included in the BJP’s 2014 election manifesto as a “dream project”.

 

A joint feasibility report with JICA pegged the cost of the 508.17 km route at Rs 75,545 crore. By the time the foundation stone was laid in 2017, the cost had zoomed to Rs 1 trillion.

 

The Japanese government agreed to provide a loan of up to 81 per cent of the project cost at 0.1 per cent interest rate per annum, to be repaid in 50 years with a 15-year moratorium. The loan came with conditions around supply of key projects, equipment, and technology to be awarded to Japanese companies.

 

A rough journey

 

The project has faced several hurdles in this decade – the most notable being the protests on land acquisition. Then came the Covid-19 pandemic, which was followed by a political upheaval in Maharashtra, where the non-BJP government impeded the project on grounds of land acquisition issues.

 

As this was getting settled, a deadlock emerged over cost negotiations with Japan over supply of Shinkansen train sets. In 2023, the Centre had asked Japanese companies to develop 24 Shinkansen E5 train sets for the project. Though the bids for the Rs 11,000 crore order were opened in February, the contract continues to be in a limbo, as the Indian government is concerned with the prices quoted by Japanese companies Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Hitachi Rail.

 

With Modi's upcoming visit to Japan, the concerns are expected to be addressed. Recently, a delegation of railway officials led by current Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw visited Japan. 

 

Another major cause of concern for the project is rising costs and the commissioning date. From Rs 1.10 trillion in 2017, the cost has been revised up to Rs 1.65 trillion, up 50 per cent.

 

Increased land costs are a major component of this price escalation, in addition to inflation. Land prices have increased manifold in areas such as Palghar, Dahanu, and Talasari, where convincing protesting villagers ate into the timeline of the project. It faced legal battles on land acquisition, a major one being with Godrej & Boyce, which took six years to be settled, in 2023. 

 

“Project cost or timeline is not a criterion for such a project. It is a common need for a developed India in the longer run,” says a source aware of the developments.

 

Based on reports, the project cost may touch Rs 2.2 trillion by 2028-30, by the time it is fully operational, at around Rs 433 crore per kilometre.

 

Make in India, make it now

 

In the middle of all these troubles has come the push for Make in India. Technocrat turned minister Vaishnaw has been keen on making Bullet trainsets in India. In July this year, speaking in Parliament, he said: “We are working on developing Bullet trains fully with indigenous technology and become ‘atmanirbhar’ (self-reliant).”

 

In June, the railway ministry asked its production unit, Integral Coach Factory (ICF) Chennai, to develop two high-speed trains which could run at a speed of 250 km per hour (kmph). Last month, ICF awarded the contract to state-owned BEML Ltd to produce two such trains at a cost of Rs 846 crore. This order will not remove the need to import Shinkansen high-speed trains from Japan.

 

“We will do the trials on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad route only. Having our own trains is vital as a lot of our own high-speed rail corridors are coming up. We need home-grown technology for that,” says U Subba Rao, General Manager at ICF, indicating the idea is to make it ready within two to three years.

 

So far, the National High-Speed Rail Corporation, a dedicated arm for building Bullet train project, has executed the construction of 338 km of piers, 222 km of viaducts, 11 bridges over rivers, six steel bridges, and 42 km of track bed for the 508-km corridor.

 

Vaishnaw recently announced that the first trial run over the 50 km stretch between Surat and Bilimoria will take place in 2026. The commissioning of the full stretch may be after that.

 

As many as seven new high-speed lines covering a total of 4,869 km are now on the drawing board, including Delhi-Varanasi (865 km), Mumbai-Nagpur (753 km), Delhi-Ahmedabad (886 km), Chennai-Mysore (435 km), Delhi-Amritsar (459 km), Mumbai-Hyderabad (711 km), and Varanasi-Howrah (760 km). These seven new projects may cost around Rs 20-25 trillion.

 

The government believes the domestic ICF train will help the new projects. It would also lead to India becoming a hub for rolling stock export.

 

Despite the bottlenecks, experts say the fact that high-speed projects are getting priority in the government's bucket list makes their case strong. Sivadasan, who witnessed the birth of the Bullet train in India, continues to cheer for it. “As someone who has seen this project since 2007, future generations will see this as a reality that succeeded in braving all the challenges, including land and other operational bottlenecks from the initial stage,” he told Business Standard.

 

However, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi has repeatedly said the same funds can go into improving railway safety.

 

India’s maiden bullet train

 

On the cards

 

Operational speed: 320 kmph

Travel time: 2.07 hours (limited stops)/2.58 hours (all stops)

Stations: 12 (8 in Gujarat, 4 in Maharashtra)

Length: 508 km (352 km in Gujarat, 156 km in Maharashtra)

 

Tracking the progress

 

Project cost: Rs 1.08 trillion (expected to have increased to Rs 1.7 trillion)

Land acquired: 1,389.5 Ha (100%)

Tender status: All infra-related tenders awarded

Work in progress: 338 km of piers, 222 km viaduct, 42 km track bed constructed. Started work on 7 km undersea tunnel section

Rolling stock: Shinkansen E5 Trainsets, indigenous bullet trains to be developed by BEML with 280 kmph top speed

Expected completion: 2026 for maiden run, full circuit by 2028-29 

 

Challenges

 

> Tenders for 24 Shinkansen E5 Trainsets continue to be in limbo, bids were opened in February as India's concerns with price remain

> Cost overruns and delays on account of land acquisition could delay completion