COP30 agenda: Contentious issues on climate change on the margins

Due to lack of willingness on part of developed nations to open their purses, ambitions have turned to phasing out fossil fuels, in order to keep global warming below 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels

“Mutirao,” a Portuguese word of indigenous origin meaning ‘collective effort', has caught everyone’s imagination at the world’s biggest climate summit in Belem, Brazil, bordering the Amazon rainforest.

 

But as COP 30 careens towards a close this weekend, the fissures are glaring.

 

So much so that there was a rare statement from the Vatican by Pope Leo XIV, the first papal head from the US who is sitting out the conference.

 

“The creation is crying out in floods, droughts, storms and relentless heat. There is still time to keep the rise in global temperature below 1.5°C, but the window is closing,” the Pope said.

 

“The transition is moving at half the pace needed to meet Paris-aligned targets,” said global consultant McKinsey’s Mekala Krishnan in a note.

 

However, the most contentious issues affecting climate change and India do not find a place in the COP 30’s agenda.

 

Instead, they have been reduced to footnotes, the kind you look up to for reference when you read the text of a book.

 

André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, president of COP 30, told delegates on Tuesday from over 190 nations to come together for a mid-week resolution on the issues at stake — finance, trade, transparency, a fossil fuel phaseout and country climate pledges — all outside the formal agenda.

 

“There are two categories, very favourable or very negative, a red line,” do Lago said in a briefing. He was referring to a deep chasm among groups of nations, especially over a roadmap to phase out oil, gas and coal.

 

Due to a lack of willingness on part of developed nations to open their purses, ambitions have turned to phasing out fossil fuels — in order to keep global warming below 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels.

 

Brazilian President Lula da Silva launched COP 30 calling for a timeline to phase out fossil fuels. Ten days ago, Brazil was the only backer — today there are 62 countries, said climate campaign outfit 350.

 

That includes European countries like the UK, Denmark and Germany, seven EIG countries, including Mexico and South Korea, seven AILAC nations and the 39 strong Association of Small Island States.

 

“President Lula has injected real momentum into a global roadmap to move away from fossil fuels,” said Andreas Sieber, associate director, 350.org.

 

India and China are not in favour.

 

A phaseout of fossil fuels is equally troubling for India, just as it is for fossil fuel producers like the Gulf nations or some African nations. This is because it will be forced to accelerate a departure from cheap coal and oil, without adequate finances and technology to support this transition.

 

“India signed to phase down not phase out at the previous COP,” said Hisham Mundol, chief advisor - India, Environmental Defense Fund.

 

Moving away from fossil fuels was agreed to at COP 28 in Dubai — a first for a UN climate conference — but short of a “phaseout.”

 

If McKinsey’s note on energy transition is to be believed, India will find it increasingly hard to decarbonise industry, its fastest growing emitter. It will risk its competitive streak if it commits to a fossil fuel phaseout deadline.

 

Less than 15 per cent of the low-emissions technologies required to meet Paris-aligned targets by 2050 have been deployed, Krishnan said.

 

“Momentum is strongest in low-emissions power, electrifying transportation but progress is mostly stuck in carbon capture, hydrogen fuels, and heavy industry.”

 

Climate pledges

 

Apart from procedural matters, climate pledges and ambitions of countries are also being held hostage by lack of clear finance commitments.

 

“Developing countries need $310–365 billion annually by 2035 for adaptation alone —12 times the current flows,” said Sumant Sinha, founder, chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of ReNew.

 

India itself requires $50 billion yearly for clean energy, far above today’s $8–$10 billion, Sinha said.

 

“Global climate finance remains insufficient, unpredictable and inaccessible,” said Navid Shafiullah, additional secretary at Bangladesh environment ministry, at a briefing.

 

Negotiations on climate finance remain deeply divided, especially on Article 9.1— the obligation of developed countries to provide financial resources.

 

Lack of progress on finance goals has delayed India’s new climate pledge or the Nationally Defined Contributions (NDC) for 2035.

 

India is now the largest emitter in the G20 without an updated emission-cutting plan. Article 4.2 of the Paris Agreement, of which India is a signatory, mandates an NDC for a five-year duration.

 

“We had 19 NDCs today, today Mexico has communicated its NDC,” said Ana Toni, CEO of COP 30 at a briefing.

 

India’s minister for environment, forest and climate change, Bhupender Yadav, did not specify when India will submit its NDC. 

 

He insisted that developed nations must advance their Net Zero targets; also, he called for global cooperation to protect the big cat species at an event in Belem.

 

“Where big cats thrive, forests are healthier, grasslands regenerate, water systems function, and carbon is stored efficiently in living landscapes,” Yadav said. He did not elaborate how protecting tigers and lions would avoid extreme weather events.   

Key takeaways 

• Nations remain deeply divided over a proposed global fossil fuel phaseout
• India delays its updated climate pledge due to uncertain finance commitments
• Developing countries urgently demand predictable, adequate, and accessible climate finance support
• Summit debates intensify as countries push differing timelines for energy transition
• Growing international momentum supports establishing a clear road map to end fossil fuels