Govt bond yields little changed ahead of Friday's key interest decision

Indian government bond yields ended little changed on Thursday as market participants refrained from placing large bets ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision on Friday.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield ended at 7.0934%, following its previous close of 7.1030%.
 

The market will focus on the central bank's commentary on inflation and liquidity management as strong economic growth and moderating inflation will allow the RBI to keep interest rates on hold until July, economists have said.
 

"The RBI is unlikely to move ahead of the Federal Reserve as India's yield curve is relatively flat and even any premature change in stance can lead to a further flattening of the yield curve," Indranil Pan, chief economist at YES Bank said.
 

The central bank's current monetary policy stance is 'withdrawal of accommodation', signalling that policy will likely remain tight.

Assuming a June start for Fed rate cuts, it could be appropriate for the RBI to move in August, Pan said.

At the February policy meeting, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had stressed the central bank may consider rate cuts only once inflation eases towards the 4% target on a sustainable basis.
 

India's retail inflation was at 5.09% in February.
 

Investors were also cautious as bond auctions from this week will be based on the so-called multiple price method, which could impact bidding.
 

New Delhi will sell 380 billion rupees ($4.56 billion) of bonds on Friday, including 200 billion rupees of a new 10-year, which will replace the existing benchmark in the coming weeks.
 

Meanwhile, U.S. bond yields stayed elevated as recent strong economic data led to concerns over the timing and quantum of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
 

There is a 62.5% chance of a Fed cut in June against 70% a week ago, the CME's FedWatch tool showed.