World Bank's suggestion to join RCEP based on flawed projections: GTRI

Think tank GTRI on Wednesday said that the World Bank's suggestion for India to reconsider joining RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) is based on flawed assumptions and outdated projections.

For developing countries like India, policy decisions must be rooted in real-world data and a thorough understanding of the long-term implications, it said.

The rising trade deficits among RCEP members and the over-reliance on China-centric supply chains underscore the importance of a cautious, well-researched approach, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

India pulled out of the RCEP in 2019 after entering negotiations in 2013. The RCEP bloc comprises 10 Asean group members (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos and Vietnam) and their six FTA partners - China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

It added that the World Bank should focus on thorough, data-based analysis that considers the specific challenges and economic conditions of developing countries before offering solutions based solely on economic models, which should be just one factor.

"The World Bank's suggestion for India to reconsider joining RCEP is based on flawed assumptions and outdated projections," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

The World Bank's latest India Development Update: India's Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context on Tuesday suggested that India could reconsider its regional integration options including its position on RCEP.

"However, this suggestion overlooks critical factors and could have significant implications for India's economic strategy and self-reliance goals," Srivastava said.

He added that India's decision not to join the RCEP was strategically sound and the core concerns that led India to opt out of RCEP in 2019 remain valid and have only been reinforced by subsequent developments.

India already has several functional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 13 out of 15 RCEP members, except New Zealand and China.