What are exit polls? Key facts you need to know for Delhi elections 2025

As Delhi gears up for the 2025 elections, here's what exit polls are, how they work, and why they matter

As Delhi gears up for the 2025 Assembly elections on February 5, the political battleground of the national capital is heating up. The sudden resignation of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, followed by his release from jail on corruption charges, has injected fresh drama into the race. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are intensifying their campaigns, deploying popular leaders in rallies to sway Delhi’s electorate.

 

Key voting details you need to know 

The Election Commission of India has announced that voting will take place in a single phase across all 70 constituencies of Delhi.  Polling stations will open at 7.00 am and close at 6.30 pm on February 5 (Wednesday), giving voters enough time to cast their votes. To encourage maximum participation, government offices and schools will remain closed, and many private offices may offer flexible hours for employees to vote.

 

When will the results be announced? 

The counting of votes will begin on February 8, 2025, with results expected on the same day. Exit polls, which give an early glimpse into voter preferences, will be released after 6.30 pm on February 5, following the Election Commission’s guidelines.

 

What are exit polls and why do they matter? 

Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations. These polls aim to predict the likely outcome based on voter responses. While exit polls can offer insights into voting trends, they aren’t always accurate.

 

The reliability of exit polls depends on several factors such as the sampling method, margin of error, and more importantly, the honesty of respondents. Despite these limitations, exit polls generate significant buzz and set the tone for post-election discussions.

 

Exit poll rules: What you should know 

According to the Representation of the People Act, 1951 (Section 126A), exit polls cannot be conducted or publicised until voting concludes. This regulation ensures that exit polls do not influence voter decisions during the polling process.

 

Exit poll blunders: When predictions missed the mark 

While exit polls often grab headlines, they have a mixed track record. Here are notable examples where they got it wrong: 

- Lok Sabha elections 2024: Exit polls predicted a massive win for the NDA, with estimates ranging from 353 to 401 seats. However, the BJP secured only 240 seats, and the NDA won 293, falling short of expectations. The Congress-led INDIA bloc exceeded predictions with 235 seats.

 

- Chhattisgarh Assembly elections 2023: Pollsters forecasted a close contest with a slight edge for Congress. In reality, the BJP won decisively with 54 seats, toppling the Congress government.

 

- UP Assembly elections 2017: Post-demonetisation, exit polls predicted a hung assembly. Contrary to this, the BJP secured a landslide victory with 325 out of 403 seats, propelling Yogi Adityanath to the Chief Minister’s office.

 

- West Bengal Assembly elections 2021: Exit polls anticipated a BJP majority. Instead, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won a commanding mandate with 213 seats, while BJP managed just 77.

 

- Bihar Assembly elections 2020: Many polls favoured the RJD-led alliance. However, the BJP-JD(U) coalition emerged victorious, with the RJD becoming the single-largest party but unable to form the government.