How Nirmala Sitharaman turned the tide in BJP's favour in Delhi elections

With over 60 per cent of Delhi's electorate belonging to the middle-class, the Budget announcement of an increased income tax rebate threshold to Rs 12 lakh may just have won BJP the election

After nearly three decades, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reclaimed power in the national capital, ending the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) decade-long dominance. As the BJP crossed the magic figure of 36 seats in the 70-member assembly on Saturday, one factor stood out—Delhi’s middle-class voters, whose allegiance may have shifted from the AAP to the saffron party. And the person responsible for the supposed shift was Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who delivered a landmark Union Budget just days before Delhi went to polls.

Middle-class mobilisation

Traditionally considered politically passive, Delhi’s middle-class electorate may have been the decisive force behind BJP’s resurgence in the national capital. While the middle-class voted overwhelmingly in the BJP's favour in the general elections, it preferred the AAP in assembly polls mainly due to waivers offered on electricity and water bills. 

 

This time, a shift was noticed in the voting pattern of the middle-class. While the poor clung to AAP's promise of freebies, the tax rebates announced in the Union Budget struck a chord with financially-burdened middle-class voters.

Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget announcements

In her Budget speech, Sitharaman announced tax sweeteners for the middle-class, increasing the tax rebate threshold to Rs 12 lakh per annum. With over 60 percent of Delhi’s electorate belonging to the middle-class, the announcement proved to be a major electoral trump card.

 

Shortly after Sitharaman's speech, Union Home Minister Amit Shah projected the move as a poll plank at an election rally in Delhi, saying the Budget brought smiles to the middle-class and Purvanchali voters.

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself reinforced this message, likening the Budget’s benefits to the blessings of Goddess Lakshmi for the "aam aadmi."

 

Political strategist Amitabh Tiwari defined the Delhi elections results in three words: "Modi, mahila, and middle-class." In a post on X, he called the middle-class getting "tax break" a big reason for the BJP's win in Delhi.

Freebies vs financial stability

Both the AAP and the BJP aggressively courted voters with welfare measures. AAP’s promises included Rs 2,100 per month for women and a 50 per cent metro fare cut for students. In response, the BJP rolled out financial assistance of Rs 2,500 for women from economically weaker sections, subsidised LPG cylinders at Rs 500, and a free cylinder on Holi and Diwali.

 

Additionally, the BJP pledged Rs 4,000 annually in metro travel benefits for students and up to Rs 10,000 for skill development under the ‘Mukhyamantri Nirman Shramik Samman Yojana’ to further attract the middle-class appeal voters.

BJP’s broader narrative

Beyond tax relief and welfare measures, BJP’s grassroots outreach played a crucial role. The party actively engaged with Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs), leveraging their influence in middle-class neighborhoods to consolidate support.

 

While AAP’s local governance model emphasised subsidies and public services, BJP’s campaign tapped into broader economic concerns. With urban consumption slowing, job creation lagging, and food price inflation persisting, the tax rebate by Nirmala Sitharaman seems to have won BJP their first assembly election since 1998.