Assessing BJP's 2019 Sankalpa Patra promises ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls

While Modi govt in 2nd term has delivered on several promises it made in BJP's 2019 manifesto a few such as doubling farmers' income, turning India into a $10 trn economy by 2032 remain uphill tasks

As political parties prepare their manifestos for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it is time to assess the implementation of the major promises made by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in its manifesto, called Sankalpa Patra (Charter of Commitments), ahead of the 2019 general elections:

Economic

Promise:

We aspire to make India the third-largest economy in the world by 2030. This implies that we commit to making India a $5 trillion economy by 2025 and $10 trillion economy by 2032.

Status check:

Covid-induced restrictions, particularly in 2020-21, delayed the timeline of making India a $5 trillion economy by almost two years. While the Indian economy may be very close to $5 trillion during 2026-27 ($4.95 trillion), it would cross this mark only during 2027-28, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund. If IMF projections are to be believed, India would become the third largest economy, after the US and China, during 2027-28, overtaking Germany, almost two years ahead of the BJP's aspirations. However, if Standard & Poor’s projections are to be believed, India will become the third-largest economy by 2030. By that time, India would be a $7.3 trillion economy, according to S&P’s projections. That would mean that the economy needs to fill the gap of $2.7 trillion in almost two years to hit the $10 trillion mark by 2032 or 17.04 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in dollar terms, which looks challenging.

Promise:

We have launched the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana to ensure financial support to farmers owning land up to two hectares. We will further expand the coverage of the scheme to all the farmers in the country.

Status check:

A few days after winning the second term, the Union Cabinet announced the expansion of the scheme to all farmers. The scheme gives Rs 2,000 to every beneficiary every four months in a year. The Cabinet note at that time said the revised scheme is expected to cover around 20 million more farmers, increasing the coverage of the PM-KISAN to around 145 million beneficiaries with an estimated expenditure of Rs 87,217.50 crore by the Centre for 2019-20. In a written reply in the Lok Sabha last month, the government said the number of beneficiaries fell 14 per cent to 92.1 million in 2023-24 from 107.3 million in the previous year. The number of beneficiaries dropped due to weeding out non-eligible beneficiaries, as well as removing duplication after Aadhaar authentication was made compulsory, sources said.

Promise:

At the very beginning of our current (first) term, Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi embarked on a mission to double farmers’ income. We will make all efforts to achieve the goal by 2022

Status check:

The situational assessment survey by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) released in 2021 showed that the real income of an agriculture household from all sources grew by about 21 per cent during six years until 2018-19. It is highly unlikely that the real income will rise to cover the gap of 79 per cent growth by 2022-23 (four more years) compared to 10 years ago. After coming to the power for a second time, the Modi government appointed the Ashok Dalwai Committee on doubling farmers’ income. The committee pegged the average annual income of an agricultural household in 2015-16 at Rs 96,703. This was projected to grow to Rs 1,72,694 by 2022-23. Going by the findings of the situational assessment survey, this also looks like an uphill task.

Promise:

We will launch a new mission to achieve self-sufficiency in oilseeds.

Status check:

The National Food Security Mission-Oilseeds (NFSM-OS) was launched during 2018-19 to augment the availability of edible oils and reduce the import burden by increasing the production and productivity of oilseeds -- groundnut, soybean, rapeseed and mustard, sunflower, safflower, sesame, niger, linseed, and castor -- and area expansion of oil palm and tree-borne oilseeds, such as olive, mahua, kokum, wild apricot, neem, jojoba, karanja, tung, cheura, and jatropha. Despite all efforts, the import bill of vegetable oils rose 187 per cent to $20.84 billion during 2023-24 over $7.24 billion during 2013-14 (the last year of the UPA-II government).

Promise:

We will launch a Jal Jeevan Mission under which we will introduce a special programme -- Nal se Jal -- to ensure piped water connection to every household by 2024.

Status check:

The mission, launched on August 15, 2019, has, so far, provided tap water connections to over 75 per cent of rural households. It has to provide connections to around 48 million households in a bit less than nine months to fulfil the promise. A senior official has expressed confidence that the promise will be delivered, though it looks a bit challenging.

Promise:

By 2024, we will make a capital investment of Rs 100 trillion in the infrastructure sector.

Status check:

The government did announce a National Infrastructure Pipeline entailing total capital investment of Rs 111 trillion on projects in areas of energy, roads, railways, ports, airports, steel, and agriculture from 2019-20 to 2024-25. Investments would mainly be in energy, roads, railways, and urban facilities. The Centre is supposed to share 39 per cent, states 41 per cent, and the private sector 2O per cent of the cost. There are 2013 projects under development in 53 sub-sectors. While many details on the progress of these projects are not in the public domain, the Centre did invest Rs 30.45 trillion from 2019-20 to 2023-24 on capital account. For this year, it has projected another Rs 11.11 trillion for capital expenditure which will take the total to Rs 41.56 trillion from 2019-20 to 2024-25.

Promise:

We will construct 60,000 km of national highways in the next five years.

Status check:

The government did raise the pace of constructing national highways from 11.6 km per day during the UPA regime to 21.58 km during the Modi government 1.0 and 30 km during the first four years of the Modi government 2.0. The Modi government in its second term has constructed 49,600 km of national highways until November 2023. Constructing 10,400 km by the end of FY24 could be a challenging task since the government takes a year to lay this many highways.

Political, social and cultural:

Promise:

We will explore all possibilities with the framework of the Constitution and all necessary efforts to facilitate the expeditious construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya

Status check:

The idol of Ram Lala was consecrated at Temple in Ayodhya on January 22. The shrine was opened to the public a day later. However, construction of other phases of the temple continues.
 

Promise:

The BJP is committed to 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state Assemblies through a constitutional amendment.

Status check:

The Women's Reservation Bill, 2023, has been passed by Parliament and signed by President Droupadi Murmu. However, 33 per cent reservation for women will have to wait until the exercise of delimitation is completed. The exercise is expected to start after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. 

Promise:

We reiterate our position since the time of Jan Sangh to the abrogation of Article 370. We are committed to annulling Article 35A of the Constitution. We will make all efforts to ensure the safe return of Kashmiri Pandits.

Status check:

Sections under the articles -- 35A and 370 -- were abolished by the Constitutional amendment. Besides, the state of Jammu & Kashmir was divided into Union Territories of Ladakh without legislature and Jammu & Kashmir with legislature. However, Kashmiri Pandits are still waiting to see the fulfilment of the promise made to them.  

Promises on simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha, state assemblies and local bodies and uniform civil code are yet to be delivered. However, a committee was formed headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind and held a few meetings on the former, while the Law Commission received several suggestions on the latter.